Re: predictions

[Nick FitzGerald <nick () virus-l demon co uk>]

Larry Seltzer wrote:

> What if Google actually follows through on their no-censorship threat?
> The Chinese can't let them get away with it, so I have to think Google
> will at least lose some business there. That's a consequence. But plenty
> of other companies will take their place.

I saw some stats on this on CNN (or BBC ?) the other day.  Google is a 
distant not-first in .cn search.  IIRC, Baidu has nearly 60% of that 
market and Google has about a third of the rest (I think in third pace 
behind another .cn provider).  This lowly marketshare (by Google's 
standards/expectations) means that their advertising revenue is even 
more heavily affected because revenue per impression, etc depends on 
marketshare.  The commentator suggested that therefore the market loss 
for Google pulling out of .cn, as a result of the expected intolerance 
of the Chinese government to Google's non-filtering move, may be 
smaller than the up-tick in intangibles (feelgood factor, etc) in 
Google's other markets and with EU legislators, etc, with whom Google 
is starting to have some, ummm, "difficulties".



Regards,

Nick FitzGerald


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