more on "War on Terra" saves few lives, expert says

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Brian Smithson <brian () grot com>
Date: September 12, 2005 5:10:47 PM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Subject: Re: [IP] more on "War on Terra" saves few lives, expert says


Dave,

A comment on a recent IP posting, for IP if you like.

I find it beyond preposterous that anyone can seriously assert that  
nobody -- NOBODY -- except Tom Clancy forecast the use of a  
commercial airliner as a suicide attack vehicle.

By itself, the 8/6/2001 PDB "Bin Ladin Determined to Strike in US"  
should have provided enough connectible dots to forecast such a  
scenario: (1) intention to conduct terrorist attacks in the US, (2)  
intention to use operatives who are based in the US, (3) intention to  
hijack US aircraft, (4) preparations for other kinds of attacks such  
as surveillance of Federal buildings in NYC, (5) plans to attack  
using explosives, and even (6) references to the World Trade Center  
and Washington DC.

Then there were reports of al Qaeda followers seeking flight training  
in various locations. Why would al Qaeda be doing that? One would  
need little imagination to figure that out, given their previous  
suicide attacks using explosive-laden boats.

What else was needed, a frigging flight plan!?

I am sick to death of hearing apologists go on and on about how  
nobody could have anticipated the tragic disasters that have befallen  
our current government, from 9/11 to Iraq to NOLA. Such statements  
ring with the same deafening cognitive dissonance as "nobody  
anticipated the levees would be breached". I am inclined not to  
attribute such massive failures to lack of information, coordination,  
imagination, or capability, but instead I attribute them to refusal  
to listen, misplaced focus of attention, agenda-driven priorities,  
and a policy of rewarding blindly loyal dilettantes over competent,  
experienced experts.

I'm not involved in government or life-critical matters, I am just a  
lowly technology project manager. But I can say that in my line of  
work, where failures may only result in some lost revenues or or a  
tarnished corporate reputation, I would expect to be FIRED ON THE  
SPOT for such gross incompetence as has been repeatedly displayed by  
Bush's administration and appointees.

And it is there that I must be lacking in imagination, because I  
cannot imagine why the highest office in our country and so-called  
leader of the free world should be held to a lower standard of  
integrity and competence than I am.



> [Ralph Hitchens said...]
> Mr. Bray was right about one thing, even if Mr. Fairlie denies  
> it.   Only Tom Clancy (in "Debt of Honor," I believe, published in  
> 1994)  forecast the use of a commercial airliner in a suicide  
> terrorist  exploit.  Yes, there have been many airline hijackings  
> in recent  decades but to my knowledge no one in the intelligence  
> community (in  which I worked for most of the last 20 years) or  
> anywhere else put  forward a scenario that resembled Clancy's.
> Had anyone done so, our counter-terrorism analysts would have had   
> something to work with.  It's not likely that an airline pilot  
> could  be induced -- even at gunpoint -- to fly into a building, so  
> al-Qaeda  would need its own pilots.  Flying an airliner is not  
> something you  learn at your average flight school; you need to  
> attend one of a  relatively small number of major flight schools  
> that provide training  in large transport-category jets.  Nearly  
> all the students at these  schools work for airlines or large  
> corporate operators, as the cost  of this training is prohibitive.   
> The Phoenix FBI office had the  right idea in its now-famous memo,  
> but it was "too little, too  late."  Had the Clancy scenario been  
> taken seriously a few years  earlier, I have no doubt that the  
> relative handful of unaffiliated  students of Middle Eastern origin  
> could have been identified and  investigated long before 9/11.
> Scenario-based forecasting doesn't seem to be widely used in the   
> Intelligence Community, from my experience.  It's a domain that   
> places the highest value on inductive reasoning.
> Ralph Hitchens


-------------------------------------
You are subscribed as lists-ip () insecure org
To manage your subscription, go to
 http://v2.listbox.com/member/?listname=ip

Archives at: http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/