Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol)

[Mark Andrews <marka () isc org>]

In message <E230DE23-AD00-4F3D-B384-BA52FA7B3691 () delong com>, Owen DeLong writes:
> On Jun 6, 2011, at 4:49 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:
>
> > =20
> > In message <B53BEF53-F327-44ED-8F23-A85042E99B3F () delong com>, Owen =
> DeLong write
> > s:
> > > =20
> > > On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:
> > > =20
> > > > =3D20
> > > > In message <alpine.BSF.2.00.1106060732190.68892 () goat gigo com>, =
> Jason =3D
> > > Fesler wr
> > > > ites:
> > > > > > But anyway, just consider it: a portion of the major websites go
> > > > > > IPv6-only for 24 hours. What happens is that well, 99% of the =3D
> > > populace
> > > > > > can't reach them anymore, as the known ones are down, they start =3D=
>
> > > calling
> > > > > > and thus overloading the helpdesks of their ISPs.
> > > > > =3D20
> > > > > Won't happen this year or next.  Too much money at stake for the =
> web=3D20=3D
> > > =20
> > > > > sites.  Only when IPv4 is single digits or less could this be =
> even=3D20
> > > > > remotely considered.  Even the 0.05% hit for a day was controverial =
> =3D
> > > at=3D20
> > > > > $dayjob.
> > > > =3D20
> > > > IPv4 will never reach those figures.  IPv6 isn't preferenced enough =
> =3D
> > > for
> > > > that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 =
> only
> > > > sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64).
> > > =20
> > > I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the =3D
> > > internet
> > > to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles =
> =3D
> > > (about
> > > 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit =
> percentage
> > > of the future network.
> > > =20
> > > Owen
> > =20
> > And without there being a strong IPv6 bias in the clients they will
> > continue to use IPv4/IPv6 on a 50/50 basis.  I would be quite happy
> > to be proven wrong and only time will tell.
> > =20
> Almost every client does have a strong IPv6 bias if they have what
> appears to be native connectivity. The bias degrades rapidly with
> other forms of host connectivity.
>
> My linux and Mac systems certainly seem to strongly prefer IPv6
> from my home. YMMV.

Things like happy-eyeballs diminish it even with perfect IPv6
connectivity.  100ms rtt doesn't cover the world and to make
multi-homed servers (includes dual stack) work well clients will
make additional connections.

> Owen
-- 
Mark Andrews, ISC
1 Seymour St., Dundas Valley, NSW 2117, Australia
PHONE: +61 2 9871 4742                 INTERNET: marka () isc org