Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling protocol)

[Mark Andrews <marka () isc org>]

In message <B53BEF53-F327-44ED-8F23-A85042E99B3F () delong com>, Owen DeLong write
s:
> On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:
>
> > =20
> > In message <alpine.BSF.2.00.1106060732190.68892 () goat gigo com>, Jason =
> Fesler wr
> > ites:
> > > > But anyway, just consider it: a portion of the major websites go
> > > > IPv6-only for 24 hours. What happens is that well, 99% of the =
> populace
> > > > can't reach them anymore, as the known ones are down, they start =
> calling
> > > > and thus overloading the helpdesks of their ISPs.
> > > =20
> > > Won't happen this year or next.  Too much money at stake for the web=20=
>
> > > sites.  Only when IPv4 is single digits or less could this be even=20
> > > remotely considered.  Even the 0.05% hit for a day was controverial =
> at=20
> > > $dayjob.
> > =20
> > IPv4 will never reach those figures.  IPv6 isn't preferenced enough =
> for
> > that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 only
> > sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64).
>
> I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the =
> internet
> to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles =
> (about
> 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit percentage
> of the future network.
>
> Owen

And without there being a strong IPv6 bias in the clients they will
continue to use IPv4/IPv6 on a 50/50 basis.  I would be quite happy
to be proven wrong and only time will tell.

-- 
Mark Andrews, ISC
1 Seymour St., Dundas Valley, NSW 2117, Australia
PHONE: +61 2 9871 4742                 INTERNET: marka () isc org