Re: Rate of growth on IPv6 not fast enough?

[joel jaeggli <joelja () bogus com>]

On 4/18/2010 9:56 PM, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:
> On Mon, 19 Apr 2010, Franck Martin wrote:
>
> > Anybody has better projections? What's the plan?
>
> My guess is that end user access will be more and more NAT444:ed (CGN)
> while at the same time end users will get more and more IPv6 access (of
> all types), and over a period of time more and more of the p2p traffic
> (VoIP, file transfers etc) will move to IPv6 because it'll stop working
> over IPv4. When enough users have IPv6 access the server-based content
> will be made reachable over v6 as well.
>
> The transition will take at least 5 years, I guess in 2015 we'll be
> perhaps halfway there.

Just because the curve doesn't look steep enough now doesn't mean it 
won't in two years. Human behavior is hard to model and panic hasn't set 
in yet.

The nutjobs are for example not headed for the hills yet.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,990020-1,00.html