Re: The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great Recession

[Dave Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Amy Wohl <amy () wohl com>
> Date: January 10, 2010 1:43:43 PM EST
> To: dave () farber net
> Subject: RE: [IP] Re: The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great  
> Recession

> Yes, we have benefited from cheaper global labor – nearly everything 
>  in stores like Walmart is built on that proposition.
>
>
>
> And yes, some kinds of knowledge jobs can be done more cheaply  
> aboard, but they require that the jobs be rethought (what gets done  
> here and what gets done elsewhere) and that the work be monitored  
> and managed differently, unless it’s the odd kind of job entirely wi 
> thout cultural differences.
>
>
>
> What’s much scarier to me is the thought that we’re not creating  
> new jobs in the U.S. to replace the jobs we’re sending overseas.  So 
> me thoughts:
>
>
>
> 1.        Whatever the new well-paid jobs of the future are, they  
> require much more education.  Walking onto an assembly line with no  
> more than a high school education and creating a middle class  
> lifestyle on your wages is probably no longer possible.
>
> 2.       Most large changes in the types of employment available  
> (and their value) occur as the result of big changes in technology,  
> culture, or society (a war, for example).  If we are to create new  
> industries we need to support innovation and the start-up of small  
> businesses which have the potential to grow and create many jobs.  I  
> think sadly of the innovation the government used to support through  
> research grants (and which we’re much stingier about today –  
> think of NASA, for example, which started whole new industries and w 
> hich is barely breathing) and the idea that public research was broa 
> dly available to fund new businesses, rather than hedged by patents  
> and other protections.
>
>
>
> We need  new generation of big thinkers who are unafraid of change  
> and financial institutions and government programs prepared to  
> support them.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Amy D. Wohl
>
> Editor, Amy Wohl's Opinions
>
> 40 Old Lancaster Road, #608
>
> Merion, Station, PA 19066
>
> 610-667-4842
>
> amy () wohl com
>
> www.wohl.com
>
>
>
>
>
> From: Dave Farber [mailto:dave () farber net]
> Sent: Sunday, January 10, 2010 12:45 PM
> To: ip
> Subject: [IP] Re: The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great  
> Recession
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Begin forwarded message:
>
> From: Rahul Tongia <tongia () cmu edu>
> Date: January 10, 2010 11:29:48 AM EST
> To: David Farber <dave () farber net>, hlin () nas edu
> Cc: ip <ip () v2 listbox com>
> Subject: Re: [IP] Re: The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great  
> Recession
> Reply-To: tongia () cmu edu
>
> Hi Dave, Herb,
>
> A few reactions (sitting in India as I type).
>
> The loss of "simple" labor was first part of the industrial  
> revolution.  That stayed at home for a long while. Indeed, the  
> British used India as raw material for their industrial might.
>
> What happened was globalization, and labor type jobs went overseas,  
> and the finished products came back.  Mind you, the finished  
> products came back cheaper than ever before. This is why we have so  
> much STUFF cheaply available, esp. in the US, but even worldwide.
>
> Now, so-called knowledge jobs are facing the same global pressures.  
> There is someone in India or Ghana or Philippines or China willing  
> to do "menial" knowledge work for a lot less. Some of that involves  
> stuff that can required specialized skills or advanced degrees  
> (e.g., reading an X-ray).
>
> Here are some personal thoughts/predictions:
>
> 1) The myth/hype/hope over knowledge jobs will hit reality when  
> people come to realize these are just jobs.   Quite fungible after  
> we work out a few kinks and legalities.
> 2) There is certainly some value to being a knowledge leader (e.g.,  
> the software industry was mostly US), but there are limits to this
> 3) At some point, the greatest competition to knowledge jobs will  
> come from computers and algorithms [that would be accelerated if we  
> SIMPLIFIED many processes/procedures].  In such a future, I  
> sincerely hope we have space for human intervention and value-based  
> judgments.
>
> Rahul
>
> On Sun, Jan 10, 2010 at 9:24 PM, David Farber <dave () farber net> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> Begin forwarded message:
>
>
>
> From: "Lin, Herb" <HLin () nas edu>
>
> Date: January 9, 2010 9:28:51 PM EST
>
> To: <dave () farber net>, "ip" <ip () v2 listbox com>
>
> Subject: RE: [IP] : The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great  
> Recession
>
>
>
> This thread is important, and i'd be curious about the reaction of  
> the IP list to the following query.
>
>
>
> Once upon a time, individuals with relatively low education and/or  
> intelligence levels could find jobs that earned an income sufficient  
> to support a middle class life style.. These jobs varied in nature,  
> but the assembly line worker is the canonical example of such a  
> job.  But as we shift towards a more information and knowledge-based  
> economy, there are fewer of these jobs - and an increasing  
> polarization of the job market into high-skill/high-wage jobs and  
> low-skill/low wage jobs.  Personal service jobs, of which there will  
> be an increasing number in the future, are the best example -- and  
> they are relatively low paying jobs.
>
>
>
> So - given the fact that 50% of the population has “intelligence”  
> below the median (however you define intelligence), what's going to  
> be the wage-equivalent job of the assembly line job in the informati 
> on age?
>
>
>
> Thoughts welcome.
>
>
>
> herb
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> From: Dave Farber [mailto:dave () farber net]
>
> Sent: Saturday, January 09, 2010 2:03 PM
> To: ip
> Subject: [IP] : The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great  
> Recession
>
>
>
>
>
> Begin forwarded message:
>
> From: Jay Fenello <Jay () bizplacements com>
> Date: January 9, 2010 11:41:02 AM EST
> To: dave () farber net
> Subject: The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great Recession
>
>
>
> Hi Dave,
>
>
>
> For IP, if you like.
>
> The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great Recession
>
> I recently saw the Great Depression film "The Grapes of Wrath," and  
> while I had seen it before, this time I was reminded of what's going  
> on in employment today.  The movie starts off with Henry Fonda  
> returning to his family farm after having been away for a few years,  
> only to find his home abandoned.  He soon learns that his family, as  
> well as all of his Oklahoma neighbors, have been evicted and are  
> leaving for the promise of jobs in California.
>
> We then learn that the families in Oklahoma have been hit with a  
> perfect storm.  Drought, low farm prices, and the displacement  
> caused by farm automation had resulted in bankruptcy and foreclosure  
> for millions of farmers.  It was reported that one man with a  
> tractor could replace 10-15 family farms, and over 100 farm workers.
>
> Similarities to the Great Recession
>
> Consider the tractor for a moment.  The gasoline powered tractor  
> first appeared way back in 1892.  However, it didn't really catch on  
> until the tractor was mass produced in the 1910's.  Then, as tractor  
> prices came down, its use on the farm started to take off.   The  
> result was an increase in farm productivity, falling prices for farm  
> products, and a loss of jobs for millions of farmers.  This  
> displacement peaked 20 years later, during the Great Depression.
>
> Today, we can see a similar process at work with computer technology  
> and the Internet.  The first personal computer came on the scene way  
> back in the late 1970's.  Its adoption didn't really take off until  
> the 1980's, eventually resulting in the computer being pervasive  
> enough to enable the explosion of the Internet in the 1990's.
>
> Along the way, we've seen computers and the Internet displace people  
> in selective industries.  Some of the first to feel the pain were  
> the music industry, followed by the travel industry, newspapers and  
> now the television networks.   We have also seen many roles within  
> companies evaporate as well.  Factory workers were the first to go,  
> followed by clerical, administrative, and now management level  
> positions.
>
> Today, after years of automating and streamlining processes, we're  
> seeing virtually every career in every industry under pressure.   
> Consider the following report by CBS News:
>
> Jobs Created by Decade,
> as reported by CBS News
>
> Decade
>
> Jobs Created
>
> 1970's
>
> 19 Million
>
> 1980's
>
> 18 Million
>
> 1990's
>
> 21 Million
>
> 2000's
>
> Less Than
> 1 Million
>
>
> Bottom line, we are in the middle of a massive restructuring of our  
> employment base, and the jobs of yesterday are about as likely to  
> return as that of the farm labor positions of the 1930's.  This is  
> not only consistent with what happened during the Great Depression,  
> but also what we would expect to happen during the "Winter" stage of  
> the long economic cycle as reported in Deflation in History:
>
> the "Winter" stage, that of severe depression, includes the  
> integration of previous social shifts and changes into the social  
> fabric of society, supported by the shifts in innovation and  
> technology.
>
> Jobs of Tomorrow
>
> In the next couple of postings, we'll explore the changing nature of  
> the job market in more detail, with a special focus on new  
> opportunities that can replace our old models of employment.  Since  
> this is a work in progress, you questions and comments are  
> encouraged.  Until next time ...
>
> Tranzitioning.com is a blog by Jay Fenello, principal and founder of BizPlacements.com 
> , an Atlanta-based
> Business Brokerage and Placement firm that helps people buy and sell  
> small businesses and franchises.
>
> Cheers,
>
>
>
> Jay.
>
>
>
> +++
>
> Jay Fenello,
>
> BizPlacements.com, LLC
> http://BizPlacements.com/
> Phone: 770-516-6922  eFax: 1-866-409-5932
> ------------------------------------------
> Check out Jay's Blog:  http://Tranzitioning.com/
>
>
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