Re: The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great Recession

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: "Lin, Herb" <HLin () nas edu>
Date: January 9, 2010 9:28:51 PM EST
To: <dave () farber net>, "ip" <ip () v2 listbox com>
Subject: RE: [IP] : The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great Recession

This thread is important, and i'd be curious about the reaction of the IP list to the following query.
 
Once upon a time, individuals with relatively low education and/or intelligence levels could find jobs that earned an 
income sufficient to support a middle class life style.. These jobs varied in nature, but the assembly line worker is 
the canonical example of such a job.  But as we shift towards a more information and knowledge-based economy, there are 
fewer of these jobs - and an increasing polarization of the job market into high-skill/high-wage jobs and low-skill/low 
wage jobs.  Personal service jobs, of which there will be an increasing number in the future, are the best example -- 
and they are relatively low paying jobs.
 
So - given the fact that 50% of the population has “intelligence” below the median (however you define intelligence), 
what's going to be the wage-equivalent job of the assembly line job in the information age?
 
Thoughts welcome.
 
herb
 
 

From: Dave Farber [mailto:dave () farber net] 
Sent: Saturday, January 09, 2010 2:03 PM
To: ip
Subject: [IP] : The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great Recession





Begin forwarded message:

> From: Jay Fenello <Jay () bizplacements com>
> Date: January 9, 2010 11:41:02 AM EST
> To: dave () farber net
> Subject: The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great Recession
>
>  
> Hi Dave,
>  
> For IP, if you like. 
>
> The Changing Nature of Employment in the Great Recession
>
> I recently saw the Great Depression film "The Grapes of Wrath," and while I had seen it before, this time I was 
> reminded of what's going on in employment today.  The movie starts off with Henry Fonda returning to his family farm 
> after having been away for a few years, only to find his home abandoned.  He soon learns that his family, as well as 
> all of his Oklahoma neighbors, have been evicted and are leaving for the promise of jobs in California.
>
> We then learn that the families in Oklahoma have been hit with a perfect storm.  Drought, low farm prices, and the 
> displacement caused by farm automation had resulted in bankruptcy and foreclosure for millions of farmers.  It was 
> reported that one man with a tractor could replace 10-15 family farms, and over 100 farm workers.
>
> Similarities to the Great Recession
>
> Consider the tractor for a moment.  The gasoline powered tractor first appeared way back in 1892.  However, it didn't 
> really catch on until the tractor was mass produced in the 1910's.  Then, as tractor prices came down, its use on the 
> farm started to take off.   The result was an increase in farm productivity, falling prices for farm products, and a 
> loss of jobs for millions of farmers.  This displacement peaked 20 years later, during the Great Depression.
>
> Today, we can see a similar process at work with computer technology and the Internet.  The first personal computer 
> came on the scene way back in the late 1970's.  Its adoption didn't really take off until the 1980's, eventually 
> resulting in the computer being pervasive enough to enable the explosion of the Internet in the 1990's.
>
> Along the way, we've seen computers and the Internet displace people in selective industries.  Some of the first to 
> feel the pain were the music industry, followed by the travel industry, newspapers and now the television networks.   
> We have also seen many roles within companies evaporate as well.  Factory workers were the first to go, followed by 
> clerical, administrative, and now management level positions.
>
> Today, after years of automating and streamlining processes, we're seeing virtually every career in every industry 
> under pressure.  Consider the following report by CBS News:
>
> Jobs Created by Decade, 
> as reported by CBS News
> Decade        Jobs Created
> 1970's        19 Million
> 1980's        18 Million
> 1990's        21 Million
> 2000's        Less Than 
> 1 Million
>
> Bottom line, we are in the middle of a massive restructuring of our employment base, and the jobs of yesterday are 
> about as likely to return as that of the farm labor positions of the 1930's.  This is not only consistent with what 
> happened during the Great Depression, but also what we would expect to happen during the "Winter" stage of the long 
> economic cycle as reported in Deflation in History:
>
> the "Winter" stage, that of severe depression, includes the integration of previous social shifts and changes into 
> the social fabric of society, supported by the shifts in innovation and technology.
>
> Jobs of Tomorrow
>
> In the next couple of postings, we'll explore the changing nature of the job market in more detail, with a special 
> focus on new opportunities that can replace our old models of employment.  Since this is a work in progress, you 
> questions and comments are encouraged.  Until next time ...
>
> Tranzitioning.com is a blog by Jay Fenello, principal and founder of BizPlacements.com, an Atlanta-based 
> Business Brokerage and Placement firm that helps people buy and sell small businesses and franchises.
>
> Cheers,
>  
> Jay.
>  
> +++
>
> Jay Fenello,
> BizPlacements.com, LLC
> http://BizPlacements.com/
> Phone: 770-516-6922  eFax: 1-866-409-5932
> ------------------------------------------
> Check out Jay's Blog:  http://Tranzitioning.com/
>
>  
Archives        




-------------------------------------------
Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now
RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/
Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com