Re: OK, here's a risk analysis question for you ...

[Rich Kulawiec <rsk () gsp org>]

On Fri, May 14, 2010 at 12:27:07PM -0800, Rob, grandpa of Ryan, Trevor, Devon & Hannah wrote:
> Hurricane season is three weeks away.  The probability of a hurricane crossing the 
> Gulf of Mexico is about 44%.

Hmmm.  Gushing oil and gas.  Hurricane.  Dispersants.  Lightning.

What could possibly go wrong?

---Rsk

p.s. I have noticed that BP has assiduously avoided making an accurate
estimate of the actual volume per unit time.  The press is still citing
the long-obsolete, hastily-calculated 5000 bl/day figure, but it appears
that multiple independent methods of estimating the rate all yield MUCH
higher numbers, as in "an order of magnitude higher":

        Size of Oil Spill Underestimated, Scientists Say
        http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/14/us/14oil.html?hp

        Gulf Spill Could Be Much Worse Than Believed
        http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126809525

        BP / Gulf Oil Spill - How Big Is It?
        http://blog.skytruth.org/2010/05/bp-gulf-oil-spill-how-big-is-it.html

As best as I can figure, the optimal way to conduct an on-site measurement
would be to take a Pitot tube down with one of the submarines, stick it
in the flow, time-average the pressure readings over 5 or 10 minutes,
use that average to compute fluid flow velocity, and use that along with
the pipe diameter to compute total flow/time.  The total flow is part
oil, part gas but I have to presume that they have a handle on the ratio
because I don't think they would have drilled there otherwise.  That ratio
can then be used to calculate the oil flow/time.  And repeating this every
day would give some clue as to whether there's any significant trend.

p.p.s. I've also noticed that apparently one of the plans to stop the flow
involves blasting golf balls, shredded tires, etc. into it.  I'd like
to suggest instead that an equal mix of BP, Halliburton and Transocean
executives might be a better choice, as it would spare us the spectacle
of watching all three point fingers at each other in front of Congress.

Oh.  Too late.  Dang.  My bad.
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