Re: The Reg does 240/4

[Owen DeLong via NANOG <nanog () nanog org>]

For everyone’s amusement:
[root@owen log]# grep 'IPv6' maillog | wc -l
2648
[root@owen log]# grep 'IPv4' maillog | wc -l
0


Now admittedly, this isn’t really a fair report because sendmail doesn’t tag IPv4 address as “IPv4” like it does IPv6 
addresses.

e.g.: Feb 15 19:22:59 owen sendmail[1545111]: STARTTLS=server, relay=localhost [IPv6:0:0:0:0:0:0:0:1], version=TLSv1.3, 
verify=NOT, cipher=TLS_AES_256_GCM_SHA384, bits=256/256

A slightly more fair version:
[root@owen log]# grep 'connect from' maillog | wc -l
14547
[root@owen log]# grep 'connect from' maillog | grep IPv6 | wc -l
431


Which shows that 431 of 14547 total connections came via IPv6 during the log period (which begins 00:00:39 UTC Feb. 11) 
and continues to the time of this writing.

However, that is overly generous to IPv4 because a much higher percentage of the connections on IPv6 result in actual 
mail transfer while many of the IPv4 connections are various failed authentication attempts, attempts to deliver 
rejected (SPAM, other) messages, and other various failures to complete the delivery process (disconnects after EHLO, 
etc.).

As stated earlier, approximately 40% of all mail received by my MTA arrives over IPv6.

FWIW, most of my netflix viewing is done via IPv6 as well.

turning off IPv4 is a tall order and a huge risk for Netflix to take, so I don’t see that happening. You’re not wrong 
about the likely impact, but it would be a rough contest between ISPs telling their customers “Netflix turned us off, 
blame them” and Netflix telling its customers “We’re no longer supporting the legacy internet protocol and your ISP 
needs to modernize.”. In the end it likely turns into a pox on both their houses and the ISPs in question and Netflix 
both lose a bunch of customers in the process.

OTOH, as new products come out that are unable to get IPv4 and are delivered over IPv6 only, this will eventually have 
roughly the same effect without the avoidable business risk involved in Netflix leading the way. this is my primary 
argument against the proposal, it will further delay this inevitability which, in turn, prolongs the pain period of 
this transition. While a handful of new entrants might benefit in some way in the short term from such a thing, in the 
long term, it’s actually harmful to everyone overall.

Owen


> On Feb 15, 2024, at 11:10, Lyndon Nerenberg (VE7TFX/VE6BBM) <lyndon () orthanc ca> wrote:
>
> I've said it before, and I'll say it again:
>
>  The only thing stopping global IPv6 deployment is
>  Netflix continuing to offer services over IPv4.
>
> If Netflix dropped IPv4, you would see IPv6 available *everywhere*
> within a month.
>
> --lyndon