Re: Muni fiber: L1 or L2?

[Jay Ashworth <jra () baylink com>]

----- Original Message -----
> From: "Scott Helms" <khelms () zcorum com>

> Yep, that's likely what will happen over the long term anyhow. That's why
> I asked about a new apartment building in your territory. You decision
> would be either run additional fiber to support each apartment as an
> end point, simply provide backhaul to some other provider, or put your own
> actives somewhere nearby.

In fact, there is *one* large multiunit in my city, and I don't believe 
that there is space for anymore; my CO location is *right across the street
from that*. :-)

If someone *does* want to put another in, they will have to pay for me to 
pull the new fiber to their lot; that's how we do it with other utilities.

> > Doing things which are not quite cost effective *yet* is pretty much
> > the *hallmark* of government, is it not? Hybrid car tax breaks, Solar
> > PV install tax breaks... these things are all subsidies to the consumer
> > cost of a technology, so as to increase its uptake and push it onto
> > the consumer-cost S-curve; this is a government practice with at least a
> > century long history.
> >
> > It's pretty much what I'm trying to accomplish here. And thanks for
> > teasing that thought out of my head, so I can make sure it's in my
> > internal sales pitch. :-)
>
> All of those items have some chance of mass deployment. Mass deployment of
> Layer 1 connectivity in the US is much *much *less likely.

For the about 19th time: *that isn't my goal*.  My goal is "not limiting
future technology developments of deployment".  Homerun fiber merely happens
to have "L1 access to providers" as a side benefit.

> > > First, exactly how many and what Layer 2 technologies BESIDES
> > > Ethernet
> > > do you think you have a market for?
> >
> > GPON/DOCSIS/RFoG? That's one people are deploying today.
>
> That question was in reference to commercial accounts not service
> providers.

I'm glad you want to limit the question, but I don't.

> > Perhaps. But the *current* potential customer base does not merit
> > locking in a limited design in a 50-year plant build.

> That's a business call, but like a lot of decisions you're making a ton of
> assumptions as well. You're assuming for example that the costs of running
> additional fibers won't go down significantly during that 50 year time
> span. 

Sure I am.  Do you really expect that we'll find an appreciably cheaper
method than directional-bore-and-blow?

More to the point, the "-blow" part of that, since I'll be over-provisioning
the conduit.

>       You're assuming that the cost of DWDM gear won't go down
> sufficiently that running new fiber is simply not needed to support the
> new architecture. 

Which seems the opposite argument.

>                    You're also assuming that Layer 1 will at some point
> have a reason for customer adoption when the entire world is working
> on Layer 3 methods of doing this.

Perhaps.  

But Juan Moore-Thyme: The extra cost of the plant build is somewhere between 
delta and epsilon; it *barely* even merits the amount of time we've burned
up talking about it.

I *can* fake loop with a home-run build, the converse is -- so far as I
can see -- not true; loop builds *require* powered active equipment in
the field, and I have half a dozen reasons to *really not want that a lot*.


> > > This is the key point. IF someone was able to put together a nationwide
> > > or even regional offering to allow inexpensive Layer 1 connectivity
> > > things would be different.
> >
> > How, Scott, would you expect that sort of thing might happen?
> >
> > By people taking the first step?
> >
> > Yeah; thought so.
>
> There are more "first steps" that are never followed up than people
> actually starting a trend. There is a guy in my neighborhood that swears
> we can all drive around in cars powered by recycled frying oil and he
> built one to prove it works. I should point out that your idea is not new
> nor are you the first to try to build something like this.

Good, then there should be lots of examples, successful *by their terms*
or not, at which I can look.

> > My county doesn't have the same first-trencher advantage my city
> > does...
> > but it does have the advantage that *it is nearly 100% built out as
> > well*;
> > we are, I believe, the densest county *in the United States*; maybe
> > Manhattan beats us. Maybe DC; maybe Suffolk County in Mass.
> >
> > So it's not at all impossible that we might be the first domino to fall;
> > there are a lot of barrier island communities near me that would be
> > similarly easy to fiber, since they're so one-dimensional.
> >
> > (Geographically; I'm sure their residents are quite nice. :-)
>
> Today there are networks based on this premise in every state I've cared to
> check. 

There are a lot of premises in this conversation; exactly which part did
you mean?

>          Here in Georgia the independent phone companies formed a seperate
> organization called US Carrier (which was recently sold for much less than
> they put into it). The muni's formed a partnering (initially) network
> called MEAG that was later renamed to GA Public Web (
> http://www.gapublicweb.net/). When the two were first constructed in the
> early 2000's they actually had a interconnects and could sell off each
> other's network, but that fell apart over time.

Another good reference; thanks.

> > >                      However, that's not going to happen AND we already
> > > have good cheap solutions to deal with that. Most commonly VPLS over GRE
> > > or VPN whose only real cost beyond the basic home Internet connection,
> > > is a ~$350 CPE that supports the protocol.
> >
> > You're paying $350 for VPN routers?
> >
> > Could I be one of your vendors?
>
> VPLS and good remote management is well worth $350.

I was quite happy with SnapGear before they got bought, out (still am,
actually), and they were about half that.


> > > your IT staff to support?
> >
> > Accurate, but not germane. They're not my target market.
>
> Owen brought up that example.

Sure, there are lots of target markets.

But no specific target market (except perhaps L1 ISPs) is driving my 
decision.

Cheers,
-- jra
-- 
Jay R. Ashworth                  Baylink                       jra () baylink com
Designer                     The Things I Think                       RFC 2100
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