nanog mailing list archives
Re: Muni Fiber (was: Re: last mile, regulatory incentives, etc)
From: William Herrin <bill () herrin us>
Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2012 20:45:24 -0400
On Mon, Mar 26, 2012 at 8:04 PM, Jacob Broussard <shadowedstrangerlists () gmail com> wrote:
Who knows what technology will be like in 5-10 years? That's the whole point of what he was trying to say. Maybe wireless carriers will use visible wavelength lasers to recievers on top of customer's houses for all we know. 10 years is a LONG time for tech, and anything can happen.
Hi Jacob, The scientists doing the basic research now know. It's referred to as the "technology pipeline." When someone says, "that's in the pipeline" they mean that the basic science has been discovered to make something possible and now engineers are in the process of figuring out how to make it _viable_. The pipeline tends to be 5 to 10 years long, so basic science researchers are making the discoveries *now* which will be reflected in deployed technologies 10 years from now. There is *nothing* promising in the pipeline for wireless tech that has any real chance of leading to a wide scale replacement for fiber optic cable. *Nothing.* Which means that in 10 years, wireless will be better, faster and cheaper but it won't have made significant inroads replacing fiber to the home and business. 20 years is a long time. 10 years, not so much. Even for the long times, we can find the future by examining the past. The duration of use of the predecessor technology (twisted pair) was about 50 years ubiquitously deployed to homes. From that we can make an educated guess about the current one (fiber). Fiber to the home started about 10 years ago leaving about 40 more before something better might replace it. Regards, Bill Herrin -- William D. Herrin ................ herrin () dirtside com bill () herrin us 3005 Crane Dr. ...................... Web: <http://bill.herrin.us/> Falls Church, VA 22042-3004
Current thread:
- Re: Muni Fiber, (continued)
- Re: Muni Fiber Jay Ashworth (Mar 28)
- Re: Muni Fiber Miles Fidelman (Mar 28)
- RE: Muni Fiber Frank Bulk (Mar 25)
- Re: Muni Fiber Masataka Ohta (Mar 25)
- Re: Muni Fiber Jared Mauch (Mar 26)
- Re: Muni Fiber Masataka Ohta (Mar 26)
- Re: Muni Fiber Jared Mauch (Mar 26)
- Re: Muni Fiber (was: Re: last mile, regulatory incentives, etc) JC Dill (Mar 25)
- Re: Muni Fiber (was: Re: last mile, regulatory incentives, etc) Valdis . Kletnieks (Mar 25)
- Re: Muni Fiber (was: Re: last mile, regulatory incentives, etc) Jacob Broussard (Mar 26)
- Re: Muni Fiber (was: Re: last mile, regulatory incentives, etc) William Herrin (Mar 26)
- Re: Muni Fiber (was: Re: last mile, regulatory incentives, etc) Ray Soucy (Mar 27)
- Re: Muni Fiber Miles Fidelman (Mar 27)
- Re: Muni Fiber Ray Soucy (Mar 27)
- Re: Muni Fiber Jared Mauch (Mar 27)
- Re: Muni Fiber Leo Bicknell (Mar 27)
- Re: Muni Fiber William Herrin (Mar 27)
- Re: Muni Fiber (was: Re: last mile, regulatory incentives, etc) Jay Ashworth (Mar 27)
- Re: Muni Fiber (was: Re: last mile, regulatory incentives, etc) Alexander Harrowell (Mar 27)
- Re: Muni Fiber (was: Re: last mile, regulatory incentives, etc) Anurag Bhatia (Mar 28)
- Re: Muni Fiber (was: Re: last mile, regulatory incentives, etc) Jacob Broussard (Mar 28)