Re: BGPttH. Neustar can do it, why can't we?

[Christopher Morrow <morrowc.lists () gmail com>]

On Mon, Aug 6, 2012 at 10:45 AM, Christopher Morrow
<morrowc.lists () gmail com> wrote:
> On Mon, Aug 6, 2012 at 10:27 AM, William Herrin <bill () herrin us> wrote:
> > On Mon, Aug 6, 2012 at 10:08 AM, Christopher Morrow
> > <morrowc.lists () gmail com> wrote:
> > > On Mon, Aug 6, 2012 at 9:07 AM, William Herrin <bill () herrin us> wrote:
> > > > As much as I'd love for
> > > > Verizon to offer BGP directly over FIOS there are fewer than 40,000
> > >
> > > I'm curious as to your number... where is that from?
> > > Marhsall had noted a number of 'small businesses' in the US at ~1.4m
> > > as of ~2006ish?
> >
> > Hi Chris,
> >
> > Lacking any reason to believe otherwise, I estimate the number of BGP
> > users at reasonably close to the number of autonomous systems in the
> > Internet BGP table. Technically that doesn't have to be true... but
> > given the debugging nuissance associated with private AS numbers and
> > the trivial ease and cost with which an AS is registered it seems
> > likely to me.
>
> I know that 701 had many 'private' (AS7046) customer peerings than
> public... it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility that other
> networks have the same situation. I think Marshall's numbers were
> based on some small-business-SEC thing, it'd be nice if he piped up
> with where he got the number though :(

I did some searching with webcrawler and found:
  <https://www.arin.net/meetings/minutes/ARIN_XX/PDF/wednesday/RoutingTable_Schiller.pdf>

which on slide 2 credits marshall (from before the slide which is
dated 2005), the actual number is not (sadly) shown in the slides...

This message from Marshall alludes to sending the numbers to Vince
Fuller, Marshall goes on to say:
   <http://www.mhonarc.org/archive/html/ietf/2007-09/msg00199.html>
"Yes, I gave numbers to Vince Fuller about millions of multi-homers,
but that was to set an upper bound on the process. I do no believe
that every small business will rush out and multi-home, no matter how
automated BGP becomes."

So clearly he's betting as Joel has (and William as well) that the
number will be below his 1.4m total businesses, but above the current
40k asns, I would think.

-chris