Re: ipv4's last graph

[Mark Townsley <townsley () cisco com>]

On Feb 1, 2011, at 9:11 PM, Geoff Huston wrote:

> On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote:
>
> > with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice
> > graphs any more.  might we have one last one for the turnstiles?  :-)/2
> >
> > and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs?
> > gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos.
>
> but of course.
>
> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg

I can almost hear the cutting and pasting going on across the globe with this.

- Mark

> This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the predicted month when the RIR will be down to 
> its last /8 policy (whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the event will occur in that 
> particular month.
>
> The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up across the regions and each region will work from 
> its local address pools and service only its local client base, and that as each region gets to its last /8 policy 
> the applicants will not transfer their demand to those regions where addresses are still available. Its not possible 
> to quantify how (in)accurate this assumption may be, so beyond the prediction of the first exhaustion point (which is 
> at this stage looking more likely to occur in July 2011 than not) the predictions for the other RIRs are highly 
> uncertain.
>
> Geoff