Re: ipv4's last graph

[Rubens Kuhl <rubensk () gmail com>]

On Tue, Feb 1, 2011 at 6:11 PM, Geoff Huston <gih () apnic net> wrote:
> On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote:
>
> > with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice
> > graphs any more.  might we have one last one for the turnstiles?  :-)/2
> >
> > and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs?
> > gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos.
>
> but of course.
>
> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg
>
> This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the predicted month when the RIR will be down to 
> its last /8 policy (whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the event will occur in that 
> particular month.
>
> The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up across the regions and each region will work from 
> its local address pools and service only its local client base, and that as each region gets to its last /8 policy 
> the applicants will not transfer their demand to those regions where addresses are still available. Its not possible 
> to quantify how (in)accurate this assumption may be, so beyond the prediction of the first exhaustion point (which is 
> at this stage looking more likely to occur in July 2011 than not) the predictions for the other RIRs are highly 
> uncertain.

Geoff,

Very nice work! In order to further enhance it, LACNIC exhaustion
policy specifies /12 instead of /8, as specified in
http://lacnic.net/en/politicas/manual11.html, so it will probably take
a few more months to such a policy be in force.


Rubens