nanog mailing list archives
Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11
From: Owen DeLong <owen () delong com>
Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2007 19:21:22 -0800
On Feb 11, 2007, at 4:22 PM, Geo. wrote:
do what google is presumably doing (lots of fiber), or would they put some capital and preorder into IDMR?IDMR is great if you're a broadcaster or a backbone, but how does it help the last 2 miles, the phoneco ATM network or the ISP network where you have 10k different users watching 10k different channels? I'm not sure if it would help with a multinode replication network like what google is probably up to either (which explains why they want dedicated bandwidth, internode replication solves the backup problems as well).
I terms of available HD content, you're far more likely to face 10,000 customers whatching 1,000 different channels, and, there will likely be some clustering. In that case, IDMR will help a lot with the exception of the last 2 miles, where, the amount of bandwidth available to the home will probably remain the limiting factor for some time in the US.
I places where MAE is a common household network delivery mechanism, this is less of a factor. I think it will probably take the US a decade or so to get to where much of Europe and Japan is today.
IPTV today isn't an improvement, much as VOIP 5 years ago had nothing to offer over POTS. Today, VOIP is rapidly gaining popularity even though the differentiators for it are small becauseAlso forgetting that bandwidth issue for a moment, where is the draw that makes IPTV better than cable or satellite? I mean come on guys, if the world had started out with IPTV live broadcasts over the internet and then someone developed cable, satellite, or over the air broadcasting, any of those would have been considered an improvement. IPTV needs something the others don't have and a simple advantage is that of an archive instead of broadcast medium. The model has to be different from the broadcast model or it's never going to fly.
it does provide some cost savings in some cases.As IPTV and especially HD IPTV starts to mature, and, as users begin to reclaim fair use and space/time/device shifting rights that are theirs under the copyright act and take back what the MPAA and RIAA continue to try to block, the rapid and convenient sharing of content, the reduced cost of delivery to the content providers, and, other factors will eventually cause IPTV to present an improvement over today's existing unidirectional services.
Today IPTV is in its infancy and is strictly a novelty for early adopters. As the technology matures and as the market develops an understanding of the possibilities creating pressure on manufacturers and content providers to offer better, it will gradually become compelling.
TIVO type setup with a massive archive of every show so you can not only watch this weeks episode but you can tivo download any show from the last 6 years worth of your favorite series is one heck of a draw over cable or satellite and might be enough to motivate the public to move to a different service. A better tivo than tivo. As for making money, just stick a commercial on the front of every download. How many movies are claimed downloaded on the fileshare networks every week?There are lots of ways to make money. Personally, I think the long- term winning model will be something similar to Netflix with IP replacing the USPO at layers 1-4. Other models will certainly be tested and probably some of them will succeed, too. However, Netflix without the postal delays or logistics could be compelling, even if it were 1.5-2x the current Netflix pricing. Realistically, we should get to a point in the technology relatively soon where a movie can be shipped across the net for about the same
cost as postage today. Owen
Current thread:
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11, (continued)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Jim Mercer (Feb 11)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Chris L. Morrow (Feb 11)
- RE: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Joseph Jackson (Feb 11)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 David W. Hankins (Feb 11)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Gadi Evron (Feb 11)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Paul Vixie (Feb 11)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Geo. (Feb 11)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Paul Vixie (Feb 11)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Geo. (Feb 11)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Stephen Sprunk (Feb 11)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Owen DeLong (Feb 11)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Matthew Sullivan (Feb 11)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Geo. (Feb 12)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Paul Vixie (Feb 11)
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- Fwd: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Alexander Harrowell (Feb 12)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Marshall Eubanks (Feb 12)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Daniel Senie (Feb 11)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Stephen Sprunk (Feb 11)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Hank Nussbacher (Feb 12)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Gadi Evron (Feb 12)
- Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11 Paul Vixie (Feb 12)