Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11

[Paul Vixie <paul () vix com>]

> Has anyone considered that perhaps google is not looking at beating
> Microsoft but instead at beating TIVO, ABC, CBS, Warner Cable, etc?

sure, but...

> You can't possibly believe that there is enough bandwidth to stream 
> HD video to everyone, that's just not going to happen any time soon.

...wouldn't there be, if interdomain multicast existed and had a billing
model that could lead to a compelling business model?  right now, to the
best of my knowledge, all large multicast flows are still intradomain.

so if tivo and the others wanted to deliver all that crap using IP, would
they do what broadcast.com did (lots of splitter/repeater stations), or
do what google is presumably doing (lots of fiber), or would they put
some capital and preorder into IDMR?

> All you need is someone like Cisco to team with who can produce a network
> consumer DVD player capable of assuming the roll of a physical tivo box,
> say something like the kiss technology DP-600 box (cisco bought kiss last
> year) that the MPAA loves so much (MPAA bought thousands of them for their
> own purposes) and presto things are suddenly taking a whole new shape and
> direction.

yeah.  sadly, that seems like the inevitable direction for the market leaders
and disruptors.  but i still wonder if a dark horse like IDMR can still emerge
among the followers and incumbents (or the next-gen disruptors)?

> So now you get a choice, buy a new HD TV tuner or buy a new DVD player that
> does standard or HD tv even after the over the air broadcast change happens
> in the US.

at some point tivo will disable my fast-forward button and i'll give up 
network TV altogether.  irritatingly, hundreds of millions of others will
not.  but we digress.