Interesting People mailing list archives

re Google Plans to Build Ultra High-Speed Broadband Networks


From: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Sat, 13 Feb 2010 14:25:53 -0500





Begin forwarded message:

From: ken <ken () new-isp net>
Date: February 13, 2010 1:51:10 PM EST
To: Bob Frankston <bob2-39 () bobf frankston com>
Cc: dave () farber net, 'ip' <ip () v2 listbox com>
Subject: Re: Google Plans to Build Ultra High-Speed Broadband Networks


Bob, (et al)

So many points to address...

Google Voice is, in fact, framed by the system it is legally required to conform to. If we wish to see real change, this is where the fight must
begin.

Turning to your comment about charging for VoIP, yes, old school is a
correct label for that concept, as I'm sure we both realize that the
cost for VoIP service will reach zero in the near future. You will note that the analysis you are pointing to was written in 2005 and even back then you will find in my writings that voice would be provided as a free
service eventually.

Certainly cost reductions can be done but you might want to remember
that running a network is expensive. As David Mercer has correctly
pointed out, the customer service alone is an ongoing expense, even
though it has been my experience that when a well designed is deployed,
customer service is minimized.

The $5K/mile refers to a 144 strand bundle of fiber being trenched using a two man team and a Ditch Witch. I am reliably told that Jaguar expects
their team to complete one mile of installed fiber per day. I do not
know whether this service is carrying 100Mbps or one gigabit but the
cost for hardware to light fiber at gigabit speeds when compared to
100baseT is relatively trivial.

Let me also raise one more critical factor in this discussion, the PUC
(or Public Service Board) can make or break any such deployment. There
is also the issue of gaining access to the poles, as with aerial
deployments, as many locations have utility poles which have no
additional capacity for fiber to be hung.

Respectfully,

Ken DiPietro
Ellerslie MD

On 02/13/2010 11:25 AM, Bob Frankston wrote:
As I wrote in http://rmf.vc/?n=BeyondLimits the type of hypergrowth we associate with Moore’s Law stems from marketplace in which we are very
accepting of what works. This means that even backhoes are subject to
major price-performance improvements because we find ways to get more
bits through existing paths by using better electronics rather than
bigger trenches.



I want to be careful about being overly optimistic – Google’s vo ice services are still framed in terms of carrier concepts like phone calls
and the Android store rebates part of the price to your carrier but
those can also be ploys to co-opt the incumbents.



It’s a matter of incentives – carriers need to limit capacity to
maintain the value of their services and their bits. Google incentives
are aligned with increase usage and capacity. That changes everything
and upsets the accounting model we see in analyses such as
http://nextgencommunications.net/blog/2005/05/the-better-model/ which
comingle technology costs with application costs. Note that that
analysis assigns a monthly charge to VoIP – very old school. This goes
right to the points I made in http://rmf.vc/?n=IPTelecomCosts.



If Google isn’t constrained by carrier architectures it could be v ery
creative in finding ways to reduce costs and improve performance. For
example it needn’t build a home-run distribution architecture. I can
think of a number of ways to reduce the costs of providing bit paths
among homes and to reduce the cost of operating such facilities. If it
isn’t concerned with counting bits it can create a resilient
infrastructure that isn’t path-dependent and which scales less the
linearly with the deployment.



My biggest concern is that this still seems to be a pay to subscribe
model but as this is not Google’s main business I hope they can p ast that. That would allow even further reduction in costs such as services housing complex as a whole and letting the residents divvy it up among
themselves.



If we’re talking $5K/mile for example – is that the cost of 1 strand or
100 strands or bundles? Is that a gigabit or a terabit or a 100
terabits? Is it the cost for the backhoe or the glass?



Let’s encourage Google to experiment. For Google this is a means a nd not an end so they have every incentive to drive the process and give us the
factor of a million improvements we’ve seen in our home networks.





*From:* Dave Farber [mailto:dave () farber net]
*Sent:* Saturday, February 13, 2010 09:57
*To:* ip
*Subject:* [IP] Re: Google Plans to Build Ultra High-Speed Broadband
Networks






Begin forwarded message:

   *From:* ken <ken () new-isp net <mailto:ken () new-isp net>>
   *Date:* February 13, 2010 9:52:48 AM EST
   *To:* dave () farber net <mailto:dave () farber net>
   *Subject:* *Re: [IP] Re:    Google Plans to Build Ultra High-Speed
   Broadband Networks*

   Dave,

Perhaps these comments and this link will help to shed some light on
   this discussion.

   George, (et al)

Donny Smith (Jaguar Communications) has the lowest connected cost of any FTTH network construction company that I am aware of and Jaguar trenches
   all of their installations.

Here is a link to an analysis of Jaguar's network even thought I am reliably told that their numbers now are closer to $5K/mile for backhaul
   plus $600 per home connected.
   http://nextgencommunications.net/blog/2005/05/the-better-model/

   Now, with respect to whether Google will cherry pick locations, I
   believe it is only fair to wait and see before passing judgment.

   Respectfully,

   Ken DiPietro
   Ellersile MD


   On 02/12/2010 10:54 AM, Dave Farber wrote:









       Begin forwarded message:



           *From:* George Ou <George.Ou () digitalsociety org
           <mailto:George.Ou () digitalsociety org>

           <mailto:George.Ou () digitalsociety org>>

           *Date:* February 12, 2010 7:31:46 AM EST

           *To:* "dave () farber net <mailto:dave () farber net>
           <mailto:dave () farber net>" <dave () farber net
           <mailto:dave () farber net>

           <mailto:dave () farber net>>, "ChrisSavage () dwt com
           <mailto:ChrisSavage () dwt com>

           <mailto:ChrisSavage () dwt com>" <ChrisSavage () dwt com
           <mailto:ChrisSavage () dwt com>

           <mailto:ChrisSavage () dwt com>>

           *Subject:* *RE: [IP] Re:    Google Plans to Build Ultra
           High-Speed

           Broadband Networks*



“For example, I recall that Loma Linda (a municipal fi ber
           build) used

           some UK-based inexpensive fiber-laying system using
           micro-trenches,

           and fiber in some special sheathing to make it especially
           easy to

           run.  A completely new network might be able to use such a
           system in a

           way that an established network provider might not find
           attractive.”







           I guess you think that Verizon must be really stupid for
           doing things

           the old fashion bell-head way and spending $800 per home
           passed plus

           another $800 to hook up an actual subscriber.  Those young
           wizards at

           Google will just figure out how to cut costs in half.







           Now let us return to reality.  Verizon’s costs are the
           lowest in the

           industry because most of their cabling is aerial.
            Underground plant

costs about 7 times more money and this is one of the major
           reasons

Qwest is avoiding fiber because 3 quarters of their homes use

           underground plant while Verizon has the opposite ratios.







           Google is going to cherry pick fewer than 1% of homes that
           will be the

cheapest/shortest aerial runs and communities with the least
           onerous

regulations. Then they’re going to turn around and cl aim
           that this is

           somehow relevant to the remaining 99% of the nation.















           George Ou











           *From:* David Farber [mailto:dave () farber net]

           *Sent:* Thursday, February 11, 2010 5:43 AM

           *To:* ip

           *Subject:* [IP] Re: Google Plans to Build Ultra High-Speed
           Broadband

           Networks















           Begin forwarded message:







           *From: *"Savage, Christopher" <

           <mailto:ChrisSavage () dwt com>ChrisSavage () dwt com

           <mailto:ChrisSavage () dwt com>>



           *Date: *February 11, 2010 8:27:39 AM EST



           *To: *< <mailto:dave () farber net>dave () farber net
           <mailto:dave () farber net>>



*Subject: RE: [IP] Re: Google Plans to Build Ultra High- Speed

           Broadband Networks*







           Dave,







I’d add the following to Chuck’s points. Suppose Goo gle
           goes big and

ends up serving 500,000 people. At 2.5 people/household that’s

           200,000 customers.  I don’t have the numbers handy but I
           suspect a

network with 200,000 customers would put them in the top 20
           network

operators in the country. (Numbers fall off pretty steeply
           after

Verizon-AT&T-Qwest-Century-Comcast-TW-Cox-Cablevision- Charter-BrightHouse…)

           Their experiment may be the worst flop of all time, but
           whatever they

           learn will reasonably apply to a very large segment of the
           populace.







           For example, I recall that Loma Linda (a municipal fiber
           build) used

           some UK-based inexpensive fiber-laying system using
           micro-trenches,

           and fiber in some special sheathing to make it especially
           easy to

           run.  A completely new network might be able to use such a
           system in a

           way that an established network provider might not find

           attractive.  If that process was cheap enough, and scaled
           well, that

would be very interesting information for the industry as a
           whole (not

to say regulators) to see. (Cf. /The Innovator’s Dilem ma/).
            It would

imply that Chuck’s back-of-the-envelope cost estimates are
           high by a

           nontrivial factor.







As another example, I have heard some strong network neutrality

proponents argue that over a reasonable planning period, the
           cost of

           adding bandwidth to deal with the demands of the top 5% or
           1% or 0.1%

           of users who send/receive massive amounts of data is
           actually cheaper

than the cost of deploying the systems needed to monitor, limit,

and/or bill for their usage. This has always struck me as an

           interesting, if a bit implausible and counterintuitive,
           assertion.  A

           1 Gbps network might well provide a test of it.  (I am
           reminded here

of the survival approach of the 17-year cicadas that we get
           here in

the mid-Atlantic. It’s called “predator satiation.” With
           billions of

           defenseless cicadas available, predators eat all of them
           they want,

and then get sick of them and mainly leave them alone – with
           billions

           still left.  Perhaps with currently available apps there
           really is an

           upper limit to how much bandwidth any one person will use,
           i.e., maybe

it is possible to simply satiate the bandwidth “hogs ”.)







I have to say – win, lose, or draw, Google’s proposal here
           is one of

           the most */interesting /*things to happen in the business
           for quite

           some time…







           Chris S.



--- ---------------------------------------------------------------------



           *From:* David Farber [mailto:dave () farber net]

           *Sent:* Thursday, February 11, 2010 7:56 AM

           *To:* ip

           *Subject:* [IP] Re: Google Plans to Build Ultra High-Speed
           Broadband

           Networks















           Begin forwarded message:







           *From: *"Charles Jackson" <
           <mailto:clj () jacksons net>clj () jacksons net

           <mailto:clj () jacksons net>>



           *Date: *February 10, 2010 9:47:32 PM EST



           *To: *"'Faulhaber, Gerald'" <

<mailto:faulhabe () wharton upenn edu>faulhabe () wharton upenn edu

           <mailto:faulhabe () wharton upenn edu>>



*Cc: *"'David Farber'" < <mailto:dave () farber net>dave () farber net

           <mailto:dave () farber net>>



           *Subject: RE: [IP] Google Plans to Build Ultra High-Speed
           Broadband

           Networks*









Well, Google never claimed to be providing a real broadband

distribution service or significant infrastructure. Rather,
           they

proposed an experiment. On Google’s blog, they claim t hat
           they are

           looking to offer service to between 50,000 and 500,000
           people.   If we

assume 2.5 people per household, this works out to 20 to 200 K

           households.  If we assume $1,000/passing, $1,000 more per
           active drop,

           and 10% penetration, then passing 50 K people (20K subs)
           would cost

           them $22 million.  I think they can afford that.







           Heck, they might learn enough about future or emerging
           consumer needs

           that this experiment will be well worth the money.







           See

           <http://googleblog.blogspot.com/>http://googleblog.blogspot.com/
           and

<http://www.google.com/appserve/fiberrfi>http://www.google.com/appserve/fiberrfi .







There’s also the political side. If they pick a medium sized

community (100 K pop), with above ground utilities (easy to
           build),

           outside the snow and hurricane zones (no interruption of

construction), and a poor cable TV system and no FIOS, their
           service

           could easily come out looking golden.







Making the experimental network “open” probably costs them
           little and

           gives them another political plus.











           Chuck











*From:* Faulhaber, Gerald [mailto:faulhabe () wharton upenn edu]

           *Sent:* Wednesday, February 10, 2010 9:15 PM

           *To:* Charles Jackson

           *Cc:* 'David Farber'

           *Subject:* RE: [IP] Google Plans to Build Ultra High-Speed
           Broadband

           Networks







           Well, if we have a charitable organization willing to lose
           money on

broadband distribution, fantastic! We’ll let search ad vertising

           subsidize infrastructure.  I’m all for that; but then I
           don’t own any

           Google stock.







My point re: CLECs is that a firm actually needs to have real

experience in local distribution networks to make them work
           (i.e., run

           with reasonable reliability, not break down due to weather
           and poor

           outside plant, not have the fiber chewed up be squirrels,
           not have

           repeaters used for target practice, all the boring stuff
           that network

guys know and Silicon Valley guys don’t), not just mone y to
           throw at

the problem. When they’ve successfully trenched 5,000 miles
           of fiber

under city and suburban streets and it actually operates for
           a year

           without failure, then they might have some network cred.







           Professor Emeritus Gerald Faulhaber

           <http://assets.wharton.upenn.edu/~faulhabe>



           Business and Public Policy Dept.



           Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania



           Philadelphia, PA 19104



           /Professor Emeritus of Law/



           /University of Pennsylvania/



           *From:* Charles Jackson [mailto:clj () jacksons net]

           *Sent:* Wednesday, February 10, 2010 8:56 PM

           *To:* Faulhaber, Gerald

           *Cc:* 'David Farber'

           *Subject:* RE: [IP] Google Plans to Build Ultra High-Speed
           Broadband

           Networks







           I’m game to sharing this exchange with the IP audience.







My response to Gerry’s response is that the proper mode l for
           Google’s

experiment is not a CLEC (funded by investors trying to get
           their

money back) but more like “Green Acres” in which Oliver Wendell

           Douglas can get by even if he doesn’t make any money
           farming.  If

           Google is willing to lose a little money (in Google terms)
           and puts a

           good manager on the project, they can provide first-rate
           service.  If

           they choose a market that is currently underserved, they
           could end up

           looking pretty good.







           If they offered service to 100,000 people, that would be
           about 40K

           households.  If they got 10% penetration, that’s only 4K
           customers.

It doesn’t take a lot of resources to give good service to 4K

customers—especially if you are willing to lose $2 for every
           $1 billed.







           Chuck















           ======================



           Charles L. Jackson







           301 656 8716    desk phone



           888 469 0805    fax



           301 775 1023    mobile







           PO Box 221



           Port Tobacco, MD 20677



--- ---------------------------------------------------------------------



*From:* Faulhaber, Gerald [mailto:faulhabe () wharton upenn edu]

           *Sent:* Wednesday, February 10, 2010 8:05 PM

           *To:* Charles Jackson

           *Cc:* David Farber

           *Subject:* RE: [IP] Google Plans to Build Ultra High-Speed
           Broadband

           Networks







Chuck [Dave, I’m happy to have this exchange on IP, if Chuck
           agrees]--







I mis-spoke. I meant experience in running a local distribution

           network, and was a bit sloppy in not being specific.  But
           running a

           long-haul network is worlds apart from running a local
           distribution

network. Evidence? Many of the CLECs /circa/ 2000 were run by

redundant AT&T operations guys, who thought they understood
           networks.

           Turns out they were clueless when it came to local
           distribution, and

           most went belly-up (helped along by recalcitrant ILECs of
           course).

But these guys went into a business they didn’t underst and while

thinking they did understand it. Running Google’s CDN is no

           experience for local distribution.







           Professor Emeritus Gerald Faulhaber

           <http://assets.wharton.upenn.edu/~faulhabe>



           Business and Public Policy Dept.



           Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania



           Philadelphia, PA 19104



           /Professor Emeritus of Law/



           /University of Pennsylvania/



           *From:* Charles Jackson [mailto:clj () jacksons net]

           *Sent:* Wednesday, February 10, 2010 7:47 PM

           *To:*  <mailto:dave () farber net>dave () farber net
           <mailto:dave () farber net>

           *Cc:* Faulhaber, Gerald

           *Subject:* RE: [IP] Google Plans to Build Ultra High-Speed
           Broadband

           Networks







           Gerry wrote:



Google has never run a carrier-grade local networking business

(besides its trivial Mountainside, CA WiFi network) and has zero

           experience in networking.  Networking is a very different
           business

           from anything Google has done before . . .















Google’s Internet backbone appears to be the second or third
           biggest

           backbone.  Google runs an ENORMOUS network.   A recent
           presentation

           stated that Google accounts for about 5% of Internet
           traffic—behind

           only Level 3 and Global Crossing.

           See
http://www.nanog.org/meetings/nanog47/presentations/Monday/Labovitz_ObserveReport_N47_Mon.pdf .








           Google may not be an ILEC or cable company, but the
           organization must

           possess a significant (enormous?) amount of networking
           knowledge.

           They haven’t been doing access networks—but there are
           probably very

           few entities in the world that spend more on routers.







If Google chooses to offer service in a community that has a
           poor

cable company and no FiOS, they should find it easy to look
           golden

           (assuming that they are willing to lose a few hundred
           dollars per

           household passed.)











           Chuck



           (Charles L. Jackson)











--- ---------------------------------------------------------------------



           *From:* Dave Farber [mailto:dave () farber net]

           *Sent:* Wednesday, February 10, 2010 6:50 PM

           *To:* ip

           *Subject:* [IP] Google Plans to Build Ultra High-Speed
           Broadband Networks







           I agree with Gerry. Djf





           Begin forwarded message:



              *From:* Gerry Faulhaber <

<mailto:gerry-faulhaber () mchsi com>gerry- faulhaber () mchsi com

              <mailto:gerry-faulhaber () mchsi com>>

              *Date:* February 10, 2010 5:59:59 PM EST

              *To:*  <mailto:dave () farber net>dave () farber net

              <mailto:dave () farber net>

              *Subject:* *Google Plans to Build Ultra High-Speed
           Broadband Networks*



              Dave [for IP]







I am a huge enthusiast for more broadband competition and
           welcome

Google into the business. I have always wondered why Google

              (whose market cap = $179B compared to total US cable
           industry =

$95B) whined incessantly about the domestic BB providers
           when it

could well have entered the market itself. It certainly
           has the

financial strength to do so, and has for quite some time.
            Its

              entry (which this announcement perhaps heralds) is long
           overdue,

in my book. But this is merely a blog announcement, and
           talk is

cheap. Let's be cautious about how much we read into this.







              But let's be serious; Google has never run a
           carrier-grade local

networking business (besides its trivial Mountainside, CA
           WiFi

              network) and has zero experience in networking.
            Networking is a

              very different business from anything Google has done
           before, and

              my guess is that unless they are in for the long haul,
           they will

              get their head handed to them...by customers who are
           unwilling to

tolerate poorly performing networks. They have also shown

themselves cack-handed at dealing with the politics of local

              distribution.  Remember the Google/Earthlink San
           Francisco Free

              WiFi network proposal?







              Google, I certainly encourage you to get into this
           business.  But

              this ain't no search engine biz; running carrier-grade
           networks

              for commercial and residential customers is tough and
           demanding

              and presents challenges you have never encountered
           before.  I hope

              you are up to it.







              Professor Emeritus Gerald Faulhaber



Wharton School and Law School, University of Pennsylvania



                  ----- Original Message -----



                  *From:* Dave Farber <mailto:dave () farber net>



                  *To:* ip <mailto:ip () v2 listbox com>



                  *Sent:* Wednesday, February 10, 2010 1:25 PM



*Subject:* [IP] WSJ TECHNOLOGY ALERT: Google Plans to
           Build

                  Ultra High-Speed Broadband Networks













                  Begin forwarded message:



                      *From:* "charles.brownstein" <

<mailto:charles.brownstein () verizon net>charles.brownstein () verizon net

                      <mailto:charles.brownstein () verizon net>>

                      *Date:* February 10, 2010 1:18:05 PM EST

                      *To:* David Farber <

                      <mailto:dave () farber net>dave () farber net

                      <mailto:dave () farber net>>

                      *Subject:* *Fwd: WSJ TECHNOLOGY ALERT: Google
           Plans to

                      Build Ultra High-Speed Broadband Networks*











                              __________________________________



                              Technology Alert



                              from The Wall Street Journal











Google plans to build and test broadband
           networks

that could deliver speeds more than 100 times

faster than what most Americans use. The
           plan,

announced on a company blog, could expand
           Google's

                              position on the Internet by answering
           consumer

                              demands for ever-faster connections.







<http://online.wsj.com/?mod=djemalertTECH >http://online.wsj.com/?mod=djemalertTECH











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