more on "Strong" AI to be here within 25 years

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Tom Fairlie <tfairlie () frontiernet net>
Date: July 15, 2006 12:00:22 AM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Cc: mac () wireless com, pollack () cs brandeis edu, TClaburn () cmp com
Subject: Re: [IP] more on "Strong" AI to be here within 25 years

Dave,

Isn't there some sort of monumental irony in this prediction?

Computer Science, the only branch of science that I'm aware
of that, in terms of is practical application, fails to build  
significantly
upon its past accomplishments, is now re-predicting that the AI
prediction from 20 years ago will now instead occur approximately
25 years in our future. All I can say is: Wow!

Is it possible to short-sell AI stocks with 300-month put contracts?

The movie AI might be more plausible.

Although I enjoy hearing Kurzweil, I think I'd rather have a beer
with Douglas Lenat right now instead.

Tom Fairlie

----- Original Message -----
From: "David Farber" <dave () farber net>
To: <ip () v2 listbox com>
Sent: Friday, July 14, 2006 5:52 PM
Subject: [IP] more on "Strong" AI to be here within 25 years




Begin forwarded message:

From: TClaburn () cmp com
Date: July 14, 2006 6:39:04 PM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Cc: pollack () cs brandeis edu
Subject: Re: [IP] more on "Strong" AI to be here within 25 years

Even if one accepts Kurzweil's predictions, the availability of
brilliant
artificial intelligence says nothing about whether humans will have
the wisdom
of avail themselves of such knowledge.

Human faults will remain undiminished. In 25 years, we will still be
making the
same mistakes.

Thomas Claburn, Editor-at-Large
InformationWeek, CMP Media, Inc.
600 Harrison St., 6th Floor
San Francisco, CA 94107
tclaburn () cmp com
415.947.6820

http://www.informationweek.com
http://www.thomasclaburn.com




              David Farber
              <dave () farber net>

       To
              07/14/2006 03:22 PM         ip () v2 listbox com

       cc

               Please respond
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                dave () farber net           [IP] more on   "Strong" AI
to be here
                                          within 25 years












Begin forwarded message:

From: Jordan Pollack <pollack () cs brandeis edu>
Date: July 14, 2006 4:28:13 PM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Subject: Re: [IP] "Strong" AI to be here within 25 years

I'm sorry, but baloney is still baloney, because Moore's law doesn't
increase the quality and complexity of our software. We'd see
something coming on supercomputers or grids. Alternative views about
the next 50 years are in the current issue of IEEE Intelligent Systems,
*http://tinyurl.com/hul5g

*IEEE unfortunately charges a fee, but my paper "Mindless
Intellligence" is available free at http://ectomental.com

Jordan

> From: Mike Cheponis <mac () wireless com>
> Date: July 13, 2006 11:01:19 AM PDT
> Subject: "Strong" AI to be here within 25 years
>
> "The advent of strong AI (exceeding human intelligence) is the
> most  important transformation this century will see, and it will
> happen  within 25 years, says Ray Kurzweil, who will present this
> paper at  The Dartmouth Artificial Intelligence Conference: The
> next 50 years  (AI@50) on July 14, 2006."
>
> Much more at: <http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/
> articles/art0683.html>
>
> Weblog at: <http://weblog.warpspeed.com>


--
Professor Jordan B. Pollack   Dynamic & Evolution Machine Org
Computer Science Department   FaxPhone/Lab: 781-736-2713/3366
MS018,  Brandeis University   http://www.demo.cs.brandeis.edu
Waltham Massachusetts 02454   e-mail: pollack-at-brandeis.edu
Multiplayer Education Games   FOR FREE! http://www.beeweb.org


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