On the 2005 switchover to digital

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Tim Onosko <onosko () gmail com>
Date: October 16, 2005 5:51:03 PM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Subject: On the 2005 switchover to digital
Reply-To: tim () onosko com


Dave:

A couple comments.

First, for the 80% of American homes connected to cable and/or  
satellite (source Sanford Bernstein Research, quoted in a May, 2005  
piece in the FT), using an analog set will not be a problem after  
2009.  I know this leaves out 20% of homes who are not cable/ 
satellite subscribers, but this is not strictly an socio-economic  
issue.  In fact, past studies demonstrate or suggest that lower  
income groups prioritize expenditures like cable TV, because it  
represents an important value to them, both in terms of entertainment  
and information.  A few of those 20% non-subscribing homes are still  
those without access to cable, such as rural residents.  And, in  
fact, those in higher income groups with more education tend to watch  
the least television and place the lowest value on it.  So, by and  
large, many in that twenty percent are simply not interested in TV.   
Those who consume lots of television and want to defer the purchase  
of a digital set will have plenty of time to do so.

Second, the b'cast networks have made an interesting "transition" to  
HDTV:  It has taken the four networks "only" about seven years to  
move around 50% of their primetime entertainment and sports lineups  
to HD programming.  None of the remaining genres, from news and  
public affairs, to so-called reality programming, daytime drama,  
variety and other program formats, is produced in HDTV.  A handful of  
cable channels have launched HDTV versions of their programming, but  
many (if not most) of the most watched channels -- the MTV Networks  
channels, for example, and CNN, MSNBC, Fox News or CNBC -- have yet  
to address the issue.

In other words, standard definition television programming isn't  
going away anytime soon, either on broadcast OR cable television.

Third, this week, Steve Jobs virtually assured us that standard  
definition (and lower-resolution) video is going to be around for a  
LONG time to come.  The iTunes Music Store isn't selling HDTV  
programs.  Apple endorsed a video format that is about a quarter of  
the resolution of analog television, signalling a shift toward  
flexibility in the way many people will consume TV, but away from the  
higher technical specs of HDTV.

I love HDTV, and I think it represents nothing less than an  
opportunity for TV to reinvent itself.  Many of the current non- 
broadcast HDTV offerings on new channels like HDNet and Discovery HD  
demonstrate a willingness to experiment with new TV forms and  
formats.  But this is also a slow revolution with a premium price tag  
attached to it, for now.

So let 2009 come and go.  If you are attracted to digital television,  
HDTV and new services that may emerge, that's great.  But if you have  
no interest and watch to continue to watch what you do now, how you  
watch it, you're only out of luck if there's a TV antenna on the top  
of your house.


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