Good thing Google's not Evil, eh?

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

-------- Original Message --------
Subject:        Good thing Google's not Evil, eh?
Date:   Thu, 17 Nov 2005 16:09:59 -0500
From:   Randall <rvh40 () insightbb com>
To:     Dave <dave () farber net>
CC:     Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>



http://tinyurl.com/97xjm

Goldman: Economic Implications of Google Base 'Will Be Dramatic' 

By Jennifer Saba 

Published: November 17, 2005 12:03 PM ET  


NEW YORK Google's foray into the classified category is still nascent,
but if Google Base takes off, it could be a huge threat to newspapers,
said a report released today from Goldman Sachs.

It's "yet another challenge to the hegemony of newspaper publishers in
the classified market," wrote Peter Appert, an analyst at Goldman Sachs.


Though still in its beta phase, Google Base lets users submit
information -- like recipes or lists of used junk in one's garage --
where it's stored in a database and made searchable. It's a free service
and, as of now, it does not provide a transaction function. 

Appert does not expect Google Base to impact the industry in the short
term (within the next 12 months). At the moment Google aggregates
information from other classified sites, including CareerBuilder, which
is owned by Gannett, Tribune, and Knight Ridder, in an arrangement meant
to drive traffic to partner sites. 

But Appert sends up a flair: "If Google eventually charges for listings,
or if advertisers find they get adequate results posting directly on
Google and can bypass paid listing services aggregated by Google, the
economic implications will be dramatic." 

To drive home the point, the report mentions the San Francisco Chronicle
as a likely harbinger of things to come. The newspaper is estimated to
be unprofitable (Hearst, which owns the Chronicle, is a private
company), in part because of the loss of classifieds to the popular and
free Craigslist. 

"While the success of Google Base is not assured, we think it is
inevitable that newspaper publishers will see erosion in their
classified ad share (and profitability) over the next five years as the
number of alternatives to traditional print classified ads grows. This
is a key reason for our cautious investment view on the sector," the
report said.

Below is a list of newspaper companies' exposure to classified revenues
as a percent of total company revenues:

Journal Register Co.: 32.5%
Knight Ridder: 31.2%
McClatchy: 30.9%
Gannett: 29.3%
Media General: 23.6%
Lee Enterprises: 22.2%
Tribune: 21.0%
The New York Times Co.: 18.4%
Journal Communications: 10.3%
E.W. Scripps: 9.6%
Washington Post Co.: 2.4%

Note: Belo and Dow Jones do not report classified revenues.



________________________________________________________________________
Jennifer Saba (jsaba () editorandpublisher com) is associate editor for
E&P.
--
http://htdaw.blogsource.com



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