IP: more on WELL WORTH READING: Broadband deployment versus broadbandadoption

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

> Date: Mon, 04 Feb 2002 17:14:40 -0800
> From: "Robert J. Berger" <rberger () ultradevices com>
>
>
> Busy with APRICOT so I'm way behind on my IP mailing list reading :-)
>
> 2) The following numbers come from the National Cable & Telecommunications
> >Association, as of 14 August 2001:
> >    * 102,184,810 million households in the US have a television.
> >    * 60,000,000 homes are passed by cable modem service. (<60% of total)
> >    * 5,000,000 households subscribe to cable modem service (<10% of total
> > homes passed by cable modem).
>
> This is a bogus assumtion that because 60Million homes are passed by 
> Cable, that those 60 Million homes could get broadband Internet if they 
> wanted to.
>
> Much of the cable plant is incapable of supporting cable modems.
>
> >3) These numbers come from the eMarketer Broadband Report (April 2001). On
> >page 46, eMarketer provides the following (estimated numbers) for 2001:
> >    * 104.3 million households in the US.
> >    * 52.4 million households are DSL-ready (50% of total)
> >    * 3.4 million DSL households in US (<10% of total DSL-ready households)
>
> What is a "DSL-ready" household? That its within 12,000 ft of a CO with 
> DSLAMs already installed? Or a household that has a spare copper pair? Or 
> a household with a copper pair connected to a CO that has a DSLAM, but who 
> knows if that copper pair could deliver broadband?
>
> I suspect its one of the two latter scenarios more than they could 
> actually delvier broadband (1Mbps or greater is my definition, though the 
> FCC defines it as 128kbps or better I believe).
>
> So this is a false meme going around that "Almost 80% of households were 
> estimated to be able to receive cable modem service by the end of 2001 
> (that is 81 million out of roughly 104 million households); likewise, 51.5 
> million households could receive DSL" or that "deployment of broadband is 
> less and less of an issue".
>
> We see the ILECs (the 4 that make up the Telco local loop Oligopoly) and 
> Cable Companies (the two that make up the Cable Duopoly) quietly shutting 
> down all expansion plans for broadband rollouts now that they have pretty 
> much finished off their competition and have the Bush/Powell/Tauzin/Dingle 
> axis all lined up to protect their interests....
>
> So having the Bush/Powell FCC issue these falsehoods is very convienient 
> to stop the boat rocking in Telecom and Cable and settle back to expensive 
> T1s and mind-numbing "entertainment"....
>
> --
> Robert J. Berger
> UltraDevices, Inc.
> 257 Castro Street, Suite 223 Mt. View CA. 94041
> Email: rberger () ultradevices com http://www.ultradevices.com
> Voice: 650-237-0334 Fax: 408-490-2868

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