IP: RE: Entering a "Telecom Dark Ages"?

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

> From: David Prior <DPrior () pbimedia com>
> To: farber () cis upenn edu
> Subject: RE: Entering a "Telecom Dark Ages"?
> Date: Tue, 19 Jun 2001 09:26:02 -0400
>
>
> Hi Dave,
>
> This has been one of my primary concerns for a while now. Back in November
> 1999 I presented a stylised chart to an audience of telecoms personnel which
> showed the impending failure of the traditional telecoms model. That slide
> was part of a wider analytical perspective concerned with the repeat of the
> presumtive anomaly principle as telecommunications becomes communications.
> As changes in the communications components of the telecommunications
> industry cycle ever faster, so they exert pressure on the evolutionary cycle
> in the telecommunications industry as a whole - forcing a cusp event. This
> shift to a new set of models, mindsets, and methods (what I term 'm-cubed')
> is the fundamental cause of the symptoms we see today in the traditional
> telecommunications and, by extrapolation and knock-on, network businesses.
>
> The more worrying aspect of this is that it is not just the US that stands
> to lose out. Without getting into the 'globalisation: good or bad' topic,
> there is a tendency for activity in the US to roll-down as precedent to
> other regions. Witness the knock-on of the dot-bomb events in regions of the
> world that had not even reached the same stage as the US: when the US market
> began to have doubts, investment and belief pulled out globally. The wider
> ramifications of this lie in terms of the decision that must be made. Do we
> move to a communications model designed and supported with global intent, or
> do we turn back to traditional telecommunications - supported by segregation
> of service, division of function and format, and legacy architectures in
> terms of both the network and the mindset?
>
> It's about time that the telecommunications industry got a wake-up call and
> began to understand the wider context of the term 'network': it involves
> methods related to collaboration and community just as much as it refers to
> the means.
>
> Feel free to post to IP. Anyone who wants to take me up on this argument is
> more than welcome to contact me directly. [ INCLUDE ME IN THE LIST FOR IP USE]
>
> Best Regards,
>
> David Prior
> Director, eServices and Infrastructure Practice
> Tarifica/PBI MEDIA Ltd
> (formerly The Phillips Group)
>
> Telephone: +44 (0)1769 520713
> Cellular: +44 (0)7788 592982
>
> UK Fax-to-email: +44 (0)870 139 1215
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>
> eMail: dprior () pbimedia com
> or: dprior () consultant com
>
> Web: http://www.pbimedialtd.com
>
>
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: David Farber [SMTP:dave () farber net]
> > Sent: Tuesday, June 19, 2001 00:31
> > To:   ip-sub-1 () majordomo pobox com
> > Subject:      IP: Entering a "Telecom Dark Ages"?
> >
> >
> > > From: "Robert J. Berger" <rberger () ultradevices com>
> > > Organization: UltraDevices Inc.
> > >
> > > The Level 3 and Nortel bad numbers/ layoff announcements combined with
> > all
> > > the other indicators has me concerned that we've entered a "Telecom Dark
> > > Ages". The ILECs have out survived most of their competitors due to their
> >
> > > monopoly revenue  streams. The Bush Administration allows the ILECs to
> > > stomp out any remaining competition.
> > >
> > > Now that the ILECs have no competition, they've slowed  down their
> > > deployment and raised their prices. The VCs and Wall Street are no longer
> >
> > > investing in any service providers so there can be no one to take
> > > advantage of wireless or other disruptive technology that could "route
> > > around" the ILECs...
> > >
> > > So even though there are  millions of people in the US who would like to
> > > get broadband service, but are not within reach of xDSL or Cable Modem,
> > > there is no industry being built to service that need.
> > >
> > > It doesn't look like this situation will change until there is some truly
> >
> > > disruptive tech (UWB/SDR?) and/or regulatory change. This could mean
> > > several years of a "Telecom Dark Ages" in the US while other countries
> > > (like China?) continue on their explosive and competitive Telecom
> > > buildouts, potentially having the US loose its technological edge...
> > > --
> > > Robert J. Berger
> > > UltraDevices, Inc.
> > > 257 Castro Street, Suite 223 Mt. View CA. 94041
> > > Voice: 408-882-4755 Fax: 408-490-2868
> > > Email: rberger () ultradevices com  http://www.ultradevices.com
> >
> >
> >
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