IP: Y2K: The First World InfoWar (maybe)

[Dave Farber <farber () cis upenn edu>]

From: "Alan Simpson" <news () comlinks com> 
To: <declan () wired com> 
Subject: Y2K - The First World InfoWar 
Date: Wed, 27 Jan 1999 16:27:56 -0500 

FYI - you covered much of this in your piece. The Feds should be planning 
spin control

Alan Simpson



Y2K  The First World InfoWar

By Alan Simpson

In the confusion of computer glitches, amid an environment of political chaos,
we must not allow the perception of the coming Y2K crisis to be used to damage
the economic, nor critical information infrastructure, nor allow public
confidence to be shattered by lack of political leadership.

For the past three years or so, discussion on Y2K, its causes and effects, has
been limited to technical newsgroups, websites and mailing lists. It has
been a
boring exchange, with discussions of lines of code, metrics, obscure computer
languages, and arguments over bios chips, embedded systems and process control
devices.

But that scenario has changed dramatically, fuelled by right wing and
religious
groups, vendors of survivalist goods and services, and the growing interest in
Y2K shown by mainstream television and radio. Today the average citizen is
blasted from all sides, with messages of Apocalypse 2000, the need to
stockpile
food and water, and the certain breakdown of essential services, even law and
order. The news 
networks carry regular features showing 1960^s-like preparations for the
electronic version of nuclear holocaust.

We are in danger of losing the confidence of Mr. & Mrs. Joe Public, in our
ability to fix the problem, and ensure critical services are available. We are
losing the ^ÓHearts and Minds^Ô of the American people in the perception of
progress towards a safe transition.

Over the past year I have noted a massive increase in email pleas, from
average
families seeking assurances, that things can^t really be that bad. Without any
clear message, or leadership from the Clinton Administration, they are caught
on an information battlefield. Surely, Joe Public asks, if there was a
problem,
government would give us the facts. Congress would be aware of any chance
of an
information meltdown. They understand the issues, don^t they?

Computers are dumb machines that don^t have any influence in the decision
making process of Washington. They do not have legions of neat suited
lobbyists, dutifully ladling out campaign contributions. If a PC is seen
outside the office of a Congressman, it^s more than likely going to the scrap
heap, not to bend his ear, with suitable lubrication.

Likewise the programmers, project managers and IT experts have no voice. They
have been shouting their warning cries for years, drowned out by the
reassurances of the trade associations and lobbyists of the software
industry. 

But it is not government that is leading the public information battle of Y2K,
it is a well organized group of extremists, with sound commercial and
philosophical goals, utilizing the rumor-spreading technology of the Internet,
and the hunger of the mass media for disaster stories.

^ÓOn the internet you can^t tell if it^s a dog^Ô is a well-known phrase. 
Anyone
can state an opinion, fabricate data, and with the building hysteria over Y2K,
it will become legend, written in stone, within a few hours. Take for instance
the Insulin story.



A flawed amateur report suggested that the majority of the world^s Insulin was
manufactured in a small plant in Denmark (later quoted as being in Holland).
This plant was quoted as never being able to achieve Y2K compliance, and so
the
world^s supply of Insulin would dry up at midnight on December 31st, 1999.
This
false rumor was relayed back-and-forth by Y2K activists, until accepted as
gospel. ^ÓIt must be correct because it is on every bulletin board, and Y2K
mailing list!^Ô

Any rational person would have questioned how such a small factory could
physically produce all the world^s Insulin. The protesting voices from the
major pharmaceutical companies went unheard. This should have been a warning
sign, that many of the Y2K newsgroups were being manipulated.

As I write this piece, another legend is in the making. Cadillac was
alleged to
have sent out a letter admitting that all Cadillac^s from 1974 until 1992 were
non-compliant, and should be returned to the dealer. Any businessperson
looking
at the facsimile of the alleged letter would have been immediately suspicious,
no date, no address and in type so small you needed a magnifying glass to read
it. Yet this story spooked thousands of concerned citizens. A couple of lone
voices that asked, ^Ódid 1972 Cadillac^s even have computers^Ô were 
immediately
flamed, and their mental abilities questioned. Like most moderates, they
licked
their email wounds, and retired from the battle.

The fact that it was a hoax, even fraud was lost in the exclamation  ^ÔSee how
big business is lying about Y2K.^Ô The old Soviet KGB would have been proud of
seeing a hoax turned into an attack on General Motors.

It is becoming evident that any positive news is the subject of skepticism,
usually met with a flood of emails onto the mailing lists with, ^ÓI met a man
whose wife works for this company, and she spoke to someone who said that
management hasn^t a clue^Å^Ô

In normal times this is idle gossip, ignored by the rational man. It is
akin to
the rumors that the military had super intelligent Aliens holed up in Area 51.
If they had, the Generals would be billionaires, running a replacement for
Microsoft, not drawing meager military pay. But as every politician knows, if
you repeat a message, again and again, get airtime on television, and meet no
opposition from government, then you achieve a self fulfilling prophesy.

If you predict Bank failures, keep on suggesting drawing out $2000 - $5000 in
cash over the New Year, as well as liquidating all assets; you will
precipitate
a meltdown of the banking, and financial system in the United States, and
around the world. There is insufficient liquidity in the modern banking
system,
in any country, to allow conversion of electronic funds, into hard cash.

If every family started hoarding food, it would fracture the delicately
balanced economic and supply models of the retail and distribution industries.
If suddenly, in December 1999, millions of people started buying up sugar,
salt, flour and the basics, there would be social and economic upheaval, not
seen since the Oil crisis in the 1970^s. Consider the plight of those who are
on limited fixed incomes, or welfare, amid escalating prices and shortages of
essentials.



There are those of course who would welcome such a catastrophe

In 1997 the FBI estimates that the losses from computer crime, and foreign and
domestic espionage probably exceeded $300 billion, about the same cost as
fixing Y2K over the last 5  10 years. This is not an idle, or insignificant
risk scenario.

The United States, through neglect and lack of positive leadership is becoming
vulnerable to serious damage, at very little cost and effort to those wanting
to attack it^s institutions, infrastructure and values. In normal times
such an
onslaught would have been unthinkable, and ridiculous.

But these are not normal times.

The resources of the Presidency are either defending the current occupants
actions, or engaging in a ^ÓWag the Dog^Ô diversion, bombing anyone who happens
to be in the cross hairs. That^s normal politics, but in these times of
crisis,
nobody is watching the farm.

The Congress is engaged in a media battle, with the credibility of the
majority
party at stake.

The Senate is paralyzed with Impeachment duties, it neither comprehends,
understands, nor relishes.

As far as the public is concerned, there are no voices of reason coming from
the nation^s capital. The ability of either party to be capable of
delivering a
Y2K crisis message, and get the people to follow their leadership, is
doubtful!

There are voices of reason on multiple channels of television, from ABC, CNN
and NBC looking at the collapse of the power grid, to TV Evangelists advising
hoarding and stockpiling, to militant survivalists offering package deals on
AK47^s and ^Óa couple of thousand rounds^Ô, the minimum needed to stop your
neighbor stealing your stockpiled survival rations.

This is no longer a hypothetical scenario.

The public is becoming increasingly concerned, and some are on the verge of
panic.  In reality there is little for Joe Public to be concerned about, for
the hard work of legions of programmers, IT managers and software companies
looks like it is paying off. The power companies seem to have the power
generation and distribution fixed, as do the telephone companies, public
utilities, and the critical supply chain providers. I say, ^Óseem to^Ô
because we
still do not have any definitive oversight of the critical infrastructure.

The banks are confident in their smug way that their systems are ready. But if
the public heeds the advice of commentators on TV, and withdraws a few months
supply of cash during December, then all the hard work of the bankers will be
in vain. The financial system will collapse. One major bank not being able to
supply as much cash as demanded, will be lead item on the local news, and
precipitate a run on the banks.

The US economic system is healthier than it has been for years. But it is all
built on perception. Lose that public confidence, that ^Ófeel good^Ô aura of a
vibrant economy, and you crash the economic system, in a nation armed to the
teeth, disdaining government, and being told to hoard food by the Churches,
and
even the Red Cross.

Who cares if the Department of this-and-that will reach 100% compliance before
2023! You could chop 60% of the expenditure, staff and resources of many
government departments, and would see an increase in service and efficiency. 
The public does not care about bureaucracy; it expects its taxes to be used
properly, and all services to be available.

It does care about electricity, telephones, food, water and transportation.

Yet all announcements from Washington relate to internal government systems!
Congressman Horn^s Report Card looks at critical systems in government. It may
have slipped the notice of the providers of this information, that when
government closed down, due to lack of a fiscal budget, the country continued
to run!

There is no ^ÓReport Card^Ô on power, telephone, transportation, food or water,
only rumors, predictions and self-serving statements by salesmen.

If in 1997, with all the defenses in place, the USA lost an estimated $300
Billion to InfoCrime. What could be the risk scenario for 2000, with a
backdrop
of a decimated information infrastructure, demoralized panicking public, no
confidence in leadership, and a shattered perception of safety and security in
financial markets.

January 2000 can either be a time for celebration, or the biggest battle in
the
First World Information War. It^s all a matter of perception, and an effective
flow of accurate stable information, easy to achieve before a battle, but
almost impossible to achieve in the heat, and confusion of a battle.  Ask Sun
Tsu, although he did not have to worry about television, and would have burned
the religious zealots, not had to listen to them!

The public is listening to them, and an effective calming, and reassuring
voice
needs to come from government. We need a calming voice that carries a big
stick, and the willingness to knock the critical information infrastructure
into a compliant year 2000.


Alan Simpson
Broadcaster & Speaker
infowar () asimpson com
http://www.comlinks.com
http://www.ASimpson.com