Re: Re: knife ban going to work?

["Brian Loe" <knobdy () gmail com>]

On 5/31/06, Jarrod Frates <jfrates.ml () gmail com> wrote:
> Wow...  There's a huge amount of willful bias on all sides here.

You think? :)

> False dichotomies, lack of research, cherry-picking statistics when
> research is done...

I've been going on what I know for a fact and stating when I'm going
from memory or what I think is the case.

> I think both DrSolly and Brian have their valid
> points, but I think both of you also might want to take a step back
> because you're getting a bit too wound into this.

I've been wound up in this for a long time, on the pro-gun side - and
I don't mind it. One of the reasons I don't mind it is that I'm almost
always right even if I mess up a few of the less important details. If
we accept everything you say from here on as truth, I'm still right.

Linking the US crime rate to CCW laws may be wishful thinking, but it
is at the least a coincidence and certainly a much stronger argument
than the increasing crime rate in the UK is for a gun ban. Pointing
out comparisons of the types of crimes is also compelling for this
argument - for me at least. Hot burglaries, for instance, obviously
involve thieves who have nothing to fear from their victims. Florida,
I might add, was the flagship example of CCW laws because the effect
appeared to be so dramatic and if CCW didn't make the positive effect
it at least had no ill effect.


> I'd like to attempt to clarify a few things, particularly about the US
> crime rate, though first I'll mention that the Shipman murders in the
> UK skewed the crime rate for the year in which they were discovered
> because they were all lumped in that one year.  The skewing is sort of
> like the murder skew for 2001 when counting the 9/11 attacks: in both
> cases, they are serious and significant anomalies that should not be
> included in the general crime rate.

I'm glad you point out later that the rate has still climbed back to
where it was - even when you don't include the Shipman murders. You
failed to mention that its trending up though, and until the next
years reports come out no real determination can be made as to whether
the gun ban has been useless (likely) or bad (possible).

> In the US, the authoritative source of crime information is the FBI's
> annual Uniform Crime Report.  It breaks down violent and nonviolent
> crimes by state, and in many cases by metropolitan district.  The
> information is culled from actual police reports, so it's pretty
> accurate.

Having read many police reports I can say they're definately NOT all
that accurate. They are a requirement of the job and treated as such.
Perhaps murder reports are better scrutinized...

> (To my knowledge, no such analogue is available in the UK;
> if there is, please do point it out, as I would like to add it to my
> research bookmarks.)

The home office report I provided a link to has much of this
information - it would seem. Homicides are at least broken down to
firearm, knife and hands and feet. :) I think they also throw in some
other semi-useful information about the number of victims who knew
their assailants and that sort of thing.


> Murders are broken down even further, classified
> by weapon type, race and gender of the assailant(s) and victim(s),
> circumstance of the murder (love triangle, business dispute, etc), and
> relationship between the assailant(s) and victim(s) (spouse, friend,
> colleague, unknown, etc).  Within that report, there is an explanation
> that the "acquaintance" relationship category encompasses a very large
> group.  If a gun battle erupts between gang members, and it can be
> shown that they knew each other, that can be listed as an argument
> between acquaintances rather than a drug turf battle between gang
> members.  Narcotics murders are usually classified only when there is
> clear and indisputable evidence that drugs were the reason for the
> murder, and can include murder during theft or someone snapping
> because of a drug's effects.

Most of this is pretty subjective.

> I've been looking at the possibility that much of the reason for the
> overall differences in crime rates between nations is cultural.

That seems like a no-brainer to me... but I'm not an academic. :)
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