Re: [arin-ppml] NAT444 rumors (was Re: Looking for an IPv6naysayer...)

[Scott Helms <khelms () ispalliance net>]

On 2/18/2011 1:53 PM, Franck Martin wrote:
> http://www.jetcafe.org/~npc/isp/large.html
>
> If you take the 5 top US ISPs and get them to do dual stack IPv6, that's 50 million subscribers in the US only.
>
> I think google and others will notice some serious traffic happening.
We're years from the point where any one of them will have more than a 
tiny fraction of their traffic as IPv6 and that's assuming that all we 
have to deal with are the known problems.

> It took a market share of 10 to 20% of Mozilla for web developers to go back to support ALL browsers. Same for mobile 
> web site a 10% surfing rate got many companies to develop web sites for mobiles.

Not really comparable because in both of those cases users were making a 
choice, because they perceived some benefit, and hence there was demand 
to adapt to those new platforms.  There is almost 0 demand for IPv6 from 
consumers and what is there is from the technologists.  We don't have a 
situation where the existing infrastructure doesn't work, it does.

> If I recall Comcast and Time Warner are participating in IPv6 day. This should create enough eyeballs to show on web 
> analytics graph and provide the shift that makes nat444 irrelevant.

I wish, but IPv6 day will be much more of a media event than anything 
else.  Keep in mind that none of these things are what I wish only what 
I believe to be accurate.

--
Scott Helms
Vice President of Technology
ISP Alliance, Inc. DBA ZCorum
(678) 507-5000
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http://twitter.com/kscotthelms
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