Interesting People mailing list archives
more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ...
From: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 07:40:48 -0400
Begin forwarded message: From: anitaclaremadsen () netscape net (anitaclaremadsen) Date: July 24, 2005 7:38:42 PM EDT To: dave () farber net Subject: RE: [IP] more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ... Please withhold my name:Would the rules of mathematical probability change if authorities were to remove an unlikely group from the screening pool? E.g., until/ unless terrorists are capable of recruiting and training middle-aged and older, white females to be suicide bombers, I fail to see the logic in random screening which includes this group. Or is this simply too politically incorrect to be considered rationally? If advertisers are better at targeting their demographic markets than anti-terrorist agencies, we are in deep trouble indeed.
David Farber <dave () farber net> wrote:
Begin forwarded message: From: Brad Templeton <btm () templetons com> Date: July 24, 2005 5:08:38 PM EDT To: David Farber <dave () farber net> Cc: Rick.Adams () Cello NetSubject: Re: [IP] more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ...On Sat, Jul 23, 2005 at 10:20:31AM -0400, David Farber wrote:If: "truly random searches are likely to be more effective than searches that follow a system." then it clearly follows that systematic searches are likely to be less effective than random searches, which means that systematic searches will likely perform worse than just getting lucky. Somehow I continue to not be reassured...Random or selected searches are not really a means of catching attacks. They are a deterrent, or a means of increasing the cost of attacks. If the attackers fear being caught, the random search (or even the selected search they haven't figured a way around) in theory should deter them from attacking at all -- if their view of the risk of capture is high enough. If they are suicide attackers, they don't so much fear getting caughtand punished as they fear wasting themselves/being wasted and attainingnothing. One severeley hopes that suicide attackers are a scarce resource for the terrorists(*). Random searches may convince them to use those resources elsewhere -- which is about the most anybody can do. Random searches and a fast communications system could also prevent the "coordinated" attack strategy, where the killers discover a weakness, and do several attacks at once, as in 9/11, 7/7, 3/11 etc. In this case, if you send 20 armed hijackers on to planes, it's extremely likely the random searches would find one of them, and sound the alarm for greater scrutiny that stops all 20 of them. (Consider that even if you search as few as one passenger in 30, the oddsare 50-50 that you will find one, and then all, of a 20 person team. Ifyou search one passenger in 10, there's only a 12% chance the team of 20 could get through.)In fact, only with non-random scrutiny can the team of 20 hijackers feelthey have a chance, something that's quite counter-intuitive. Once the evil organization has identified 20 operatives who do not triggerthe flags of selective scrutiny, they can now mount their operation withsome confidence. With truly random selection they can not do this, it inherently limits the size of the group.(*)One of the most bizrre elements of London 7/7 was that the murderersused suicide bombing when there is almost no tactical need to kill yourself to blow up a train compartment. It seems they were sent to kill themselves almost entirely for the shock value, and perhaps to make sure they could not be caught. They seem to want to show us that suicide attackers are so plentiful that they can be wasted. ------------------------------------- You are subscribed as anitaclaremadsen () netscape net To manage your subscription, go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/?listname=ipArchives at: http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting- people/
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- more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ... David Farber (Jul 22)
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- more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ... David Farber (Jul 22)
- more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ... David Farber (Jul 22)
- more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ... David Farber (Jul 22)
- more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ... David Farber (Jul 22)
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- more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ... David Farber (Jul 22)
- more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ... David Farber (Jul 23)
- more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ... David Farber (Jul 24)
- more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ... David Farber (Jul 24)
- more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ... David Farber (Jul 25)
- more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ... David Farber (Jul 25)
- more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ... David Farber (Jul 25)