more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ...

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Adam Shostack <adam () homeport org>
Date: July 25, 2005 12:50:04 PM EDT
To: David Farber <dave () farber net>
Cc: Ip ip <ip () v2 listbox com>
Subject: Re: [IP] more on NYC to search transit riders' bags -- but ...


Dave,

Sorry to drag this out, but it may be worth noting that New York MTA
has spent only $30m of the $600m they committed to security after
9/11.

The New York Times reported:

"But to date, two and a half years after that announcement and nearly
four years after Sept. 11, only a small fraction - about $30 million
as of March - has been spent, and nearly all of that on consultants
and additional study."

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/09/nyregion/09mta.html? 
ex=1278561600&en=182a69e6341774c6&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss

Adam

On Sun, Jul 24, 2005 at 07:16:27PM -0400, David Farber wrote:
|
|
| Begin forwarded message:
|
| From: Brad Templeton <btm () templetons com>
| Date: July 24, 2005 5:08:38 PM EDT
| To: David Farber <dave () farber net>
| Cc: Rick.Adams () Cello Net
| Subject: Re: [IP] more on NYC to search transit riders' bags --  
but ...
|
|
| On Sat, Jul 23, 2005 at 10:20:31AM -0400, David Farber wrote:
|
| >If:
| >    "truly random searches are likely to be more effective
| >    than searches that follow a system."
| >
| >then it clearly follows that systematic searches are likely to be
| >less effective
| >than random searches, which means that systematic searches will
| >likely perform worse than just getting lucky.
| >
| >Somehow I continue to not be reassured...
| >
|
| Random or selected searches are not really a means of catching
| attacks.   They are a deterrent, or a means of increasing the
| cost of attacks.  If the attackers fear being caught, the random
| search (or even the selected search they haven't figured a way around)
| in theory should deter them from attacking at all -- if their view of
| the risk of capture is high enough.
|
| If they are suicide attackers, they don't so much fear getting caught
| and punished as they fear wasting themselves/being wasted and  
attaining
| nothing.   One severeley hopes that suicide attackers are a scarce
| resource for the terrorists(*).   Random searches may convince them
| to use those resources elsewhere -- which is about the most anybody
| can do.
|
| Random searches and a fast communications system could also prevent
| the "coordinated" attack strategy, where the killers discover a
| weakness,
| and do several attacks at once, as in 9/11, 7/7, 3/11 etc.  In
| this case, if you send 20 armed hijackers on to planes, it's extremely
| likely the random searches would find one of them, and sound the alarm
| for greater scrutiny that stops all 20 of them.
|
| (Consider that even if you search as few as one passenger in 30, the
| odds
| are 50-50 that you will find one, and then all, of a 20 person  
team. If
| you search one passenger in 10, there's only a 12% chance the team of
| 20 could get through.)
|
| In fact, only with non-random scrutiny can the team of 20 hijackers  
feel
| they have a chance, something that's quite counter-intuitive.  Once
| the evil organization has identified 20 operatives who do not trigger
| the flags of selective scrutiny, they can now mount their operation  
with
| some confidence.  With truly random selection they can not do this, it
| inherently limits the size of the group.
|
|
| (*)One of the most bizrre elements of London 7/7 was that the  
murderers
| used suicide bombing when there is almost no tactical need to kill
| yourself
| to blow up a train compartment.  It seems they were sent to kill
| themselves
| almost entirely for the shock value, and perhaps to make sure they
| could not
| be caught.
|
| They seem to want to show us that suicide attackers are so plentiful
| that
| they can be wasted.
|
|
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