Re: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

[Louie Lee via NANOG <nanog () nanog org>]

Certainly.

Projecting demand is one thing. Figuring out what to buy for your backbone,
edge (uplink & peer), and colo (for CDN caches too!), for which
scale+growth is quite another.

And yeah, Jim, overall, things have stayed the same. There are just the
nuances added with caches, gaming, OTT streaming, some IoT (like always-on
home security cams) plus better tools now for network management and
network analysis.

Louie
Google Fiber.



On Tue, Apr 2, 2019 at 12:00 PM Jared Mauch <jared () puck nether net> wrote:

> > On Apr 2, 2019, at 2:35 PM, jim deleskie <deleskie () gmail com> wrote:
> >
> > +1 on this. its been more than 10 years since I've been responsible for
> a broadband network but have friends that still play in that world and do
> some very good work on making sure their models are very well managed, with
> more math than I ever bothered with, That being said, If had used the
> methods I'd had used back in the 90's they would have fully predicted per
> sub growth including all the FB/YoutubeNetflix traffic we have today. The
> "rapid" growth we say in the 90's and the 2000' and even this decade are
> all magically the same curve, we'd just further up the incline, the
> question is will it continue another 10+ years, where the growth rate is
> nearing straight up :)
>
>
> I think sometimes folks have the challenge with how to deal with aggregate
> scale and growth vs what happens in a pure linear model with subscribers.
>
> The first 75 users look a lot different than the next 900.  You get
> different population scale and average usage.
>
> I could roughly estimate some high numbers for population of earth
> internet usage at peak for maximum, but in most cases if you have a 1G
> connection you can support 500-800 subscribers these days.  Ideally you can
> get a 10G link for a reasonable price.  Your scale looks different as well
> as you can work with “the content guys” once you get far enough.
>
> Thursdays are still the peak because date night is still generally Friday.
>
> - Jared