Re: Current trends in capacity planning and oversubscription

["Curtis, Bruce" <Bruce.Curtis () ndsu edu>]

On Nov 12, 2010, at 5:52 PM, Sean Donelan wrote:

> On Wed, 10 Nov 2010, Curtis, Bruce wrote:
> > If we take our current ISP bandwidth and increase it by 50% every 
> > year for 5 years it would be about twice the 100 Mbps per 1,000 
> > students/staff recommendation.
>
> Is 50% growth each year typical these days?  In the dot-com boom days, 
> people said 100% growth, other people have suggested 20% may be more 
> reasonable now.

  We did see a lower rate of growth after the dot-com boom/bust.

  However the rate of growth picked up with the popularity of video streaming sites.

  This site mentions 40 to 50% growth last year and has references to other papers that  mention similar growth rates 
(although some of those papers may now be several years old.)

http://www.dtc.umn.edu/mints/home.php

  So to answer the question I would say that 40 to 50% growth is typical these days, it has been for us.

  I assume that it will continue for a few years but I'm less confidant speculating that it would still be 40 to 50% in 
5 to 7 years.  But I wouldn't bet against it either. 

>  A problem with government network capacity 
> planning/growth forecasts is you will be stuck with whatever you choose, 
> too high or too low, for many years because the budget cycle is so long.
>
> It would be great if there was some actual data available.  But it seems
> more typical to benchmark/compare to do network capacity planning with 
> other government agencies, so we end up with X-Mbps per Y,000 people.
> Yes, I know it depends.  1,000 people downloading data from LHC 
> experiments will be different from an administrative school office. 
> The difference is the people using LHC data usually have someone who can 
> figure out network capacity planning, while the people in an 
> administrative school office may not have anyone.
>
> So what is a reasonable network capacity for 1,000 students now and in 5 
> years.

---
Bruce Curtis                         bruce.curtis () ndsu edu
Certified NetAnalyst II                701-231-8527
North Dakota State University