Re: OECD Reports on State of IPv6 Deployment for Policy Makers

[William Herrin <bill () herrin us>]

On Sat, Apr 10, 2010 at 12:31 AM, Randy Bush <randy () psg com> wrote:
> karine perset's work is, as usual, good enough that it should be seen in
> it's original, not some circle-je^h^hid hack of a small part of it.
>
> http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/48/8/44961688.pdf

John,

I'd like to call your attention to slide 8, the chart showing growth
in fully working IPv6 deployments. Should that growth trend be allowed
to continue, IPv4-only deployments can be expected to fall into the
minority after another few hundred years.

The upcoming conversion of IPv4 addressing into a zero-sum game (as a
result of free pool depletion) is likely to increase this growth
trend, but it's anybody's guess whether the new growth trend improves
to something with a faster-than-linear feedback loop. And of course
once free pool depletion hits, the cost to deploy additional IPv4
systems starts to grow immediately, independent of pre-majority IPv6
growth.

We might want to consider additional public policy incentives to kick
the IPv6 growth rate into a higher gear.

Regards,
Bill Herrin


-- 
William D. Herrin ................ herrin () dirtside com  bill () herrin us
3005 Crane Dr. ...................... Web: <http://bill.herrin.us/>
Falls Church, VA 22042-3004