nanog mailing list archives
Re: BGP Growth projections
From: Iljitsch van Beijnum <iljitsch () muada com>
Date: Sun, 12 Jul 2009 17:41:26 +0200
On 10 jul 2009, at 19:03, Joel Jaeggli wrote:
IPv6 is going to explode the routing table in the next 5 years.
More like, ipv4 is going explode the routing table in the next 5 years?
IPv6 is now at something like 1.2 - 1.4 prefixes per AS. So it will take a LONG time before we reach 100k v6 prefixes unless something changes.
IPv4 is already growing very fast, and it's all the small stuff: < / 16. This is 90% of the allocations and 10% of the address space (from memory). This isn't going to be impacted much by the IPv4 depletion. There's always people going bankrupt so addresses flow back to the RIRs.
The only way the v4 table is going to explode is if Comcast etc decide that rather than 1 /12 they're going to take 4000 /24s or some such. Now of course the Comcasts of this world really don't want to spend even $1/address, and I think a /24 will be more than $1 after the v4 space has depleted. But even worse: having 4000 contracts with 4000 different people with 4000 different lawyers... Suddenly switching to IPv6 doesn't seem like such a bad deal anymore.
Bottom line: a router that can do 500k prefixes is probably ok for the next 3 years but not likely for the next 5. 750k or more should be enough for 5 years, though. And you don't want to buy the router you're going to use in 2015 today.
Current thread:
- BGP Growth projections Mark Radabaugh (Jul 10)
- Re: BGP Growth projections Jon Lewis (Jul 10)
- Re: BGP Growth projections Joel Jaeggli (Jul 10)
- Re: BGP Growth projections Randy Bush (Jul 11)
- Re: BGP Growth projections Iljitsch van Beijnum (Jul 12)
- Re: BGP Growth projections Adam Rothschild (Jul 10)
- RE: BGP Growth projections Ivan Pepelnjak (Jul 11)
- Re: BGP Growth projections Arie Vayner (Jul 12)
- Re: BGP Growth projections Adam Rothschild (Jul 12)
- RE: BGP Growth projections Ray Burkholder (Jul 12)
- Re: BGP Growth projections Jon Lewis (Jul 12)
- Re: BGP Growth projections Arie Vayner (Jul 12)
- Re: BGP Growth projections Mark Radabaugh (Jul 12)
- Re: BGP Growth projections Justin Shore (Jul 12)
- RE: BGP Growth projections Tomas L. Byrnes (Jul 12)