Re: "IP networks will feel traffic pain in 2009" (C|Net & Cisco)

["Patrick W. Gilmore" <patrick () ianai net>]

On Jan 20, 2009, at 2:58 PM, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:
> On Tue, 20 Jan 2009, Paul Vixie wrote:
>
> > "Cisco VNI projections indicate that IP traffic will increase at a  
> > combined
> > annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46 percent from 2007 to 2012, nearly  
> > doubling
> > every two years. This will result in an annual bandwidth demand on  
> > the
> > world's IP networks of approximately 522 exabytes2, or more than  
> > half a
> > zettabyte."
>
> Two thoughts:
>
> Why do some people think that bytes/month is a relevant measure of  
> traffic? Peak bits/second is what you need to make your network  
> handle for it to perform well.
>
> For me CAGR of 46% is a slowdown. I'm used to 75-120% growth per  
> year in traffic, 46% is a relief. As markets mature (we're seeing  
> decline in # of DSL lines in the country, increase is in LAN and  
> mobile) less new people are going online (the ones who want Internet  
> access already have it) and the increase per year in traffic by  
> existing users is slower than the increase seen during the rush of  
> new users coming online.


It is a slowdown, but the underlying situation is not the same.

100 Mbps came out before most were doing 100 Mbps on a typical LAN in  
aggregate.
1000 Mbps came out before most were doing 1000 Mbps on a typical WAN  
in aggregate.
10000 Mbps came out before most were aggregating 10x[GigE|OC12] on  
their largest individual WAN links.
100000 Mbps should come out shortly after most are aggregating 32x10GE  
on a typical WAN link.

See a pattern forming here?

--
TTFN,
patrick