Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4

[Joel Jaeggli <joelja () bogus com>]

Tomas L. Byrnes wrote:

> IPv4 has enough addresses for every computer on Earth, and then some.

There are approximately 3.4 billion or a little less usable ip 
addresses. there are 3.3 billion mobile phone users buying approximately 
400,000 ip capable devices a day. That's a single industy, 
notwithstanding how the are presently employed what do you think those 
deployments are going to look like in 5 years? in 10?

How many ip addresses do you need to nat 100 million customers? how much 
state do you have to carry to do port demux for their traffic?

I guess making it all scale is someone else's problem...

> That having been said, I think going to IPv6 has a lot of other benefits
> that make it worthwhile.
>
> YMMV, IANAL, yadda yadda yadda
>
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Paul Vixie [mailto:vixie () isc org] 
> > Sent: Sunday, May 04, 2008 9:39 AM
> > To: nanog () merit edu
> > Subject: Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4
> >
> > nanog () daork net (Nathan Ward) writes:
> >
> > > > That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are 
> > being hoarded 
> > > > by organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.
> > > Unless you're expecting those organisations to be really 
> > nice and make 
> > > that address space available to other organisations (ie. their RIR/ 
> > > LIR, or the highest bidder on ebay), ...
> > first, a parable:
> >
> > in datacenters, it used to be that the scarce resource was 
> > rack space, but then it was connectivity, and now it's 
> > power/heat/cooling.  there are fallow fields of empty racks 
> > too far from fiber routes or power grids to be filled, all 
> > because the scarcity selector has moved over time.  some 
> > folks who were previously close to fiber routes and/or power 
> > grids found that they could do greenfield construction and 
> > that the customers would naturally move in, since too much 
> > older datacenter capacity was unusable by modern standards.
> >
> > then, a recounting:
> >
> > michael dillon asked a while back what could happen if MIT 
> > (holding 18/8) were to go into the ISP business, offering 
> > dialup and/or tunnel/VPN access, and bundling a /24 with each 
> > connection, and allowing each customer to multihome if they 
> > so chose.  nobody could think of an RIR rule, or an ISP rule, 
> > or indeed anything else that could prevent this from 
> > occurring.  now, i don't think that MIT would do this, since 
> > it would be a distraction for them, and they probably don't 
> > need the money, and they're good guys, anyway.
> >
> > now, a prediction:
> >
> > but if the bottom feeding scumsuckers who saw the opportunity 
> > now known as spam, or the ones who saw the opportunity now 
> > known as NXDOMAIN remapping, or the ones who saw the 
> > opportunity now known as DDoS for hire, realize that the next 
> > great weakness in the internet's design and protocols is 
> > explosive deaggregation by virtual shill networking, then we 
> > can expect business plans whereby well suited shysters march 
> > into MIT, and HP, and so on, offering to outsource this 
> > monetization.  "you get half the money but none of the 
> > distraction, all you have to do is renumber or use NAT or 
> > IPv6, we'll do the rest."  nothing in recorded human history 
> > argues against this occurring.
> > --
> > Paul Vixie
> >
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>
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