nanog mailing list archives
Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion
From: Geoff Huston <gih () apnic net>
Date: Sun, 04 May 2008 13:10:06 +1000
Mike Leber wrote:
Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected until IPv4 exhaustion: http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
....
ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people do that? pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement. :)
I keep on saying: its just a mathematical model, and the way this will play out is invariably different from our best guesses. So to say "well there's x days to go" is somewhat misleading as it appears to vest this model with some air of authority about the future, and that's not a good idea! IPv4 address allocation is a rather skewed distribution. Most address allocations are relatively small, but a small number of them are relatively large. Its the the timing of this smaller set of actors who are undertaking large deployments that will ultimately determine how this plays out. It could be a lot faster than 1000 days, or it could be slower - its very uncertain. There could be some "last minute rush." There could be a change in policies over remaining address pools as the pool diminishes, or .... So, yes, the pool is visibly draining and you now can see all the way to the bottom. And it looks like there are around 3 years to go ... but thats with an uncertainty factor of at least +/- about 1 1/2 years. regards, Geoff _______________________________________________ NANOG mailing list NANOG () nanog org http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog
Current thread:
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion, (continued)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion Patrick W. Gilmore (May 02)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion Tim Yocum (May 02)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion JC Dill (May 13)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion Patrick W. Gilmore (May 13)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion Deepak Jain (May 02)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion James R. Cutler (May 02)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion Randy Bush (May 02)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion Mikael Abrahamsson (May 03)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion Joel Jaeggli (May 03)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion Robert E. Seastrom (May 07)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion Geoff Huston (May 03)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion William Warren (May 03)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion Nathan Ward (May 03)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 Paul Vixie (May 04)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 Tomas L. Byrnes (May 04)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 Paul Vixie (May 04)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 Joel Jaeggli (May 04)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 David Conrad (May 04)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 Randy Bush (May 04)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion Joel Jaeggli (May 03)
- Re: [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion Suresh Ramasubramanian (May 03)