Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

[Bill Nash <billn () billn net>]

I wouldn't be shocked at all if this was an element of multi-pronged 
lobbying approaches, reminiscent of the 'fiber to the home' tax break 
series that hit a handful of years back that got us pretty much nothing.

Given trivial tech milestones like these:
http://www.thelocal.se/7869/20070712/ (2007)
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=82315 (2005)

I call bullshit.

Besides, by 2010 we'll be staring down a global economy collapse and 
people will be too busy trying to find food to get online and download 
movies.

- billn

On Fri, 18 Apr 2008, Scott Francis wrote:

> http://www.news.com/2100-1034_3-6237715.html
>
> I find claims that "soon everything will be HD" somewhat dubious
> (working for a company that produces video for online distribution) -
> although certainly not as eyebrow-raising as "in 3 years' time, 20
> typical households will generate more traffic than the entire Internet
> today". Is there some secret plan to put 40Gb ethernet to "typical
> households" in the next 3 years that I haven't heard about? I don't
> have accurate figures on how much traffic "the entire Internet"
> generates, but I'm fairly certain that 5% of it could not be generated
> by any single household regardless of equipment installed, torrents
> traded or videos downloaded. Even given a liberal application of
> Moore's Law, I doubt that would be the case in 2010 either.
>
> Does anybody know what the basis for Mr. Cicconi's claims were (if
> they even had a basis at all)? Internal reports from ATT engineering?
> Perusal of industry news sources? IRC? A lot of scary numbers were
> tossed into the air without any mention of how they were derived. A
> cynical person might be tempted to think it was all a scare tactic to
> soften up legislators for the next wave of "reasonable network
> management" practices that just happen to have significant revenue
> streams attached to them ...

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