nanog mailing list archives
Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010
From: "Stephen John Smoogen" <smooge () gmail com>
Date: Fri, 18 Apr 2008 14:27:07 -0600
On Fri, Apr 18, 2008 at 2:15 PM, Scott Francis <darkuncle () gmail com> wrote:
http://www.news.com/2100-1034_3-6237715.html I find claims that "soon everything will be HD" somewhat dubious (working for a company that produces video for online distribution) -
I think that is based off the all American TV going to HDD that is supposed to happen in 2009. ( I think I read that currently only 40% of Americans have HDD TV's and the 60% were not going to buy one until it became too late. )
although certainly not as eyebrow-raising as "in 3 years' time, 20 typical households will generate more traffic than the entire Internet today". Is there some secret plan to put 40Gb ethernet to "typical households" in the next 3 years that I haven't heard about? I don't have accurate figures on how much traffic "the entire Internet" generates, but I'm fairly certain that 5% of it could not be generated by any single household regardless of equipment installed, torrents traded or videos downloaded. Even given a liberal application of Moore's Law, I doubt that would be the case in 2010 either. Does anybody know what the basis for Mr. Cicconi's claims were (if they even had a basis at all)? Internal reports from ATT engineering? Perusal of industry news sources? IRC? A lot of scary numbers were
Maybe he has been trading on "the Internet is going to die" since 1981 and his shorts on the Internet are coming due in 2010? I mean this sounds as much like all the other pump and dump things I have read :).
tossed into the air without any mention of how they were derived. A cynical person might be tempted to think it was all a scare tactic to soften up legislators for the next wave of "reasonable network management" practices that just happen to have significant revenue streams attached to them ... -- darkuncle@{gmail.com,darkuncle.net} || 0x5537F527 http://darkuncle.net/pubkey.asc for public key _______________________________________________ NANOG mailing list NANOG () nanog org http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog
-- Stephen J Smoogen. -- CSIRT/Linux System Administrator How far that little candle throws his beams! So shines a good deed in a naughty world. = Shakespeare. "The Merchant of Venice" _______________________________________________ NANOG mailing list NANOG () nanog org http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog
Current thread:
- [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 Scott Francis (Apr 18)
- Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 Stephen John Smoogen (Apr 18)
- Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 David Coulson (Apr 18)
- Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 Dragos Ruiu (Apr 18)
- Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 David Coulson (Apr 18)
- Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 David Coulson (Apr 18)
- Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 Jeff Shultz (Apr 18)
- Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 Stephen John Smoogen (Apr 18)
- Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 Bill Nash (Apr 18)
- Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 Marshall Eubanks (Apr 18)
- Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 Patrick W. Gilmore (Apr 18)
- Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 Williams, Marc (Apr 18)
- Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 Marc Manthey (Apr 18)
- Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 Mike Lieman (Apr 18)