Re: An Internet IPv6 Transition Plan

[Stephen Wilcox <steve.wilcox () packetrade com>]

On Thu, Jul 26, 2007 at 01:25:51PM -0400, John Curran wrote:
> At 2:01 PM +0100 7/26/07, Stephen Wilcox wrote:
> > well, the empirical data which is confirmed here is saying that those 10% are burning most of the v4 addresses and 
> > we are not seeing them rollout v6 whether they 'need to' or not
>
> Wow...  you mean that they're not announcing general IPv6
> availability two years before they have to?  I'm so surprised.  ;-)

they need to be announcing availability well in advance of a forced need to transition and based on the projected 
timescales 2 yrs in advance has already passed them by

> > so you sound right in theory, but in practice your data doesnt show that is occuring and it also suggests those 10% 
> > are actively supporting 'the wall' approach.
>
> The number of major backbone operators looking into IPv6 is already
> quite high, and will likely approach 100%.  The alternative is carriers
> having to explain to the analyst community that they lack a business
> plan for new data customer growth once large IPv4 blocks are no longer
> generally available.

ah yes of course.. looking into, producing reports. but where are they at really? :

- how many of those have obtained address space sufficient to cover their customer base already?
- how many of those networks have made the trivial step of announcing their v6 blocks in BGP?
- how many of them have already got native v6 running in their backbones and on their services (mail, dns etc).. 
fundemental advance prerequisites to any complicated end user deployment

i think the number with one of the above is a reasonable percentage, with two of the above is small and three of the 
above.. are there any?

Steve