Re: North America not interested in IP V6

["Marshall Eubanks" <tme () multicasttech com>]

On Fri, 1 Aug 2003 14:32:39 +0100
 Michael.Dillon () radianz com wrote:
> > I have been plotting the IPv6 ASNs for some time. These should be the
> > ISPs running IPv6. See:
> > http://www.nlnetlabs.nl/ipv6/measurements/index.html
>
> It would be interesting to see an analysis that combines this data with 
> Geoff Huston's IPv4 analysis
> http://www.potaroo.net/ispcolumn/2003-07-v4-address-lifetime/ale.html
> and see if we can predict the point at which the number of IPv6 addresses 
> deployed begins to exceed the number of IPv4 addresses deployed? I realize 
> that  the IPv6 analysis is routes only, but one should be able to 
> determine how many addresses are available in each ASN.
>
> One could reasonably assume that at the point where the Internet shifts to 
> IPv6 as the core protocol, more than half of the interfaces with an IPv4 
> address will also have an IPv6 address. So to get to that point, one could 
> make some assumptions about the allocation of IPv6 /48's based on the 
> observed trends in IPv4 /32's.
>
> I'm not sure where one would take this, but I think a lot of people would 
> be interested in seeing some type of well-presented analysis of these 
> questions.

It's not worth doing a fine analysis to predict so far in the future - a
back of the envelope will do just fine :)

Look at ASN :

http://www.nlnetlabs.nl/ipv6/measurements/index.html

shows that IPv6 ASN (as seen fron NLNetLabs) are doubling about every 1.75
years, and are about 340 now.

So, IPv6 ASN can be modeled as 

N_6 = 340 x 2^(T/1.75)

where T = time - 2003.5 in years.

Now, IPv4 ASN withb routing are growing linearly lately (see Figure 2b in
http://www.multicasttech.com/status/index.html for example) and
can be roughly modeled as

N_4 = 15000 + 1750 x (t - 2003.5) = 15000 + 1750 T

Set N_4 = N_6 and we see that the number of IPv4 and IPv6 ASN with routing
will be equal in a little less than 12 years (T ~ 11.75), or some time in the
Spring of 2015.

This is far enough into the future that I do not think that it is realistic to
be more rigorous than this.

Regards
Marshall Eubanks


> --Michael Dillon