RE: CIDR Report

["Roeland Meyer (E-mail)" <rmeyer () mhsc com>]

I've mentioned this before, so I'll just note it lightly.
There are a growing number of companies (dot-coms are only one of them) that have small head-count (<4000), but are 
spread out from Sydney to New York, with many "lone eagles" in the MST zone. They could probably do everything on a 
portable /24. However, with everyone filtering out announcements less than /20, such companies are encouraged to drop 
NAT, and use other methods to justify a /19, just so they can participate in peering (I won't say whom, one is a CTI 
development company). The VPN solution is cute, but the entire VP then becomes single-homed, at the VPN gateway (The 
alternative is that each location gets their own /24, linked by a VPN, to the other /24s, there are serious performance 
issues with this approach and hte /24 may only represent a single actual user). All of this burns IP addresses. 

The point: Filtering BGP announcements costs in IP space allocations. There is a mathmatical relationship between IP 
address allocations, table sizes, and routing policies. Also, part of the relationship is determined by client business 
requirements.

Organizations are becomeing more geophysically diffused, with many end-nodes actually participating in multiple 
organizations. This is only starting now (I still see over 100K nodes actually doing this), it will get much worse.

> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-nanog () merit edu [mailto:owner-nanog () merit edu]On Behalf Of
> Mikael Abrahamsson
> Sent: Saturday, May 13, 2000 2:10 AM
> To: nanog () nanog org
> Subject: Re: CIDR Report
>
>
>
> On Sat, 13 May 2000 pjnesser () Nesser COM wrote:
>
> > But if you look at the last 250 days or so you see that the 
> table has
> > grown by more than 16k routes.  So we are seeing growth at 
> 300% of what we
> > saw for the last 5 plus years.  It also looks annoyingly 
> geometric or
> > perhaps exponential, instead of the nice linear growth 
> since CIDR was
> > introduced.  
>
> If you just check from 01/01/99 to date then it looks linear 
> or at least
> close to linear.
>  
> I guess it *could* be that growing amount of new companies getting
> internet access is increasing. Is there any data that show "CIDR GAIN"
> from the cidr report, so we can see if the increase corresponds to an
> increase in (perhaps unneccessary) smaller announcements in 
> larger blocks,
> or if it is actually just a lot more blocks allocated that needs to be
> routed. Any stats on arin/ripe/apnic new allocations of 
> blocks in the same
> timeframe? Both in terms of IP adresses and in number of blocks of IP
> adresses. This would also give us some kind of hint as to 
> when IPv4 space
> will be exhausted (or are there already projections about this?)
>
> -- 
> Mikael Abrahamsson    email: swmike () swm pp se