Re This new technology could send American politics into a tailspin

["Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: "Ed Gerck, Ph.D." <egerck () gmail com>
> Date: October 21, 2018 19:44:20 JST
> To: David Farber <dave () farber net>
> Subject: Re: [IP] This new technology could send American politics into a tailspin
>
> Hello Dave and all.
>   
> A fact is what you were willing to believe. This is well-known in physics, and was known to Galileo. This article is 
> not new, and the problem is old in the biblical story of Eve, as well. 
>
> Some 30 years ago, in another country, the wife of a Cabinet member received pictures of the husband and a woman, in 
> compromising photos. Actually, it was a setup, where the woman was paid to act the part ... and photos were taken 
> before the man could react, by a hidden camera. 
>
> The problem is not some "new technology" but the age-old con game.  The blurry photos or video may even add 
> "authenticity".
>
> The problem -- or quality -- is that people tend to follow Newton' s Third Law, to be contrarians. This will not 
> likely change in the foreseeable future, but we can adjust, the click-bait press can be controlled, IP list can help.
>
> Cheers, Ed Gerck
>
> > On Sun, Oct 21, 2018, 02:45 Dave Farber <farber () gmail com> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > Begin forwarded message:
> >
> > > From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
> > > Date: October 20, 2018 at 7:29:27 PM GMT+9
> > > To: Multiple recipients of Dewayne-Net <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>
> > > Subject: [Dewayne-Net] This new technology could send American politics into a tailspin
> > > Reply-To: dewayne-net () warpspeed com
> > >
> > > This new technology could send American politics into a tailspin
> > > By Ben Sasse
> > > Oct 19 2018
> > > <https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-real-scary-news-about-deepfakes/2018/10/19/6238c3ce-d176-11e8-83d6-291fcead2ab1_story.html>
> > >
> > > Ben Sasse, a Republican, represents Nebraska in the Senate and is the author of the new book “Them: Why We Hate 
> > > Each Other and How to Heal,” from which this op-ed was adapted. 
> > >
> > > Flash forward two years and consider these hypotheticals. You’re seated at your desk, having taken your second sip 
> > > of coffee and just beginning to contemplate the breakfast sandwich steaming in the bag in front of you. You click 
> > > on your favorite news site, one you trust. “Unearthed Video Shows President Conspiring with Putin.” You can’t 
> > > resist.
> > >
> > > The video, in ultrahigh definition, shows then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin examining an 
> > > electoral map of the United States. They are nodding and laughing as they appear to discuss efforts to swing the 
> > > election to Trump. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump smile wanly in the background. The report notes that Trump’s 
> > > movements on the day in question are difficult to pin down.
> > >
> > > Alternate scenario: Same day, same coffee and sandwich. This time, the headline reports the discovery of an audio 
> > > recording of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and Attorney General Loretta E. Lynch brainstorming 
> > > about how to derail the FBI investigation of Clinton’s use of a private server to handle classified emails. The 
> > > recording’s date is unclear, but its quality is perfect; Clinton and Lynch can be heard discussing the attorney 
> > > general’s airport tarmac meeting with former president Bill Clinton in Phoenix on June 27, 2016.
> > >
> > > The recordings in these hypothetical scenarios are fake — but who are you going to believe? Who will your neighbors 
> > > believe? The government? A news outlet you distrust?
> > >
> > > If you thought the fight over Brett M. Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court confirmation couldn’t have been more horrible, 
> > > buckle your seat belts. Imagine how the public divisions would have deepened had there been fake-but-plausible 
> > > video of an undergraduate Kavanaugh partying hard at Yale, or fake-but-plausible audio of Senate Democratic Leader 
> > > Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.) huddling on strategy calls with lawyers for Kavanaugh’s accusers.
> > >
> > > Deepfakes — seemingly authentic video or audio recordings that can spread like wildfire online — are likely to send 
> > > American politics into a tailspin, and Washington isn’t paying nearly enough attention to the very real danger 
> > > that’s right around the corner.
> > >
> > > Consider: In December 2017, an amateur coder named “DeepFakes” was altering porn videos by digitally substituting 
> > > the faces of female celebrities for the porn stars’. Not much of a hobby, but it was effective enough to prompt 
> > > news coverage. Since then, the technology has improved and is readily available. The word deepfake has become a 
> > > generic noun for the use of machine-learning algorithms and facial-mapping technology to digitally manipulate 
> > > people’s voices, bodies and faces. And the technology is increasingly so realistic that the deepfakes are almost 
> > > impossible to detect.
> > >
> > > Creepy, right? Now imagine what will happen when America’s enemies use this technology for less sleazy but more 
> > > strategically sinister purposes.
> > >
> > > I spoke recently with one of the most senior U.S. intelligence officials, who told me that many leaders in his 
> > > community think we’re on the verge of a deepfakes “perfect storm.” The storm has three critical ingredients: First, 
> > > this new technology is staggering in its disruptive potential yet relatively simple and cheap to produce. Second, 
> > > our enemies are eager to undermine us. With the collapse of the Russian economy, Putin is trying to maintain unity 
> > > at home by finding a common enemy abroad. He has little to lose and lots to gain — it’s far easier to weaken U.S. 
> > > domestic support for NATO than to actually fight NATO head-on. Russia hasn’t mastered these information operations 
> > > yet, but China is running scout-team offense behind every play. China will eventually be incredibly good at this, 
> > > and we are not ready.
> > >
> > > [snip]
> > >
> > > Dewayne-Net RSS Feed: http://dewaynenet.wordpress.com/feed/
> > > Twitter: https://twitter.com/wa8dzp
> >
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