Is Science Hitting a Wall? Part 2

["Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: John Horgan <jhorgan () stevens edu>
> Date: April 17, 2018 at 5:02:35 PM EDT
> To: Dave Farber <farber () gmail com>
> Cc: John Horgan <jhorgan () stevens edu>
> Subject: Is Science Hitting a Wall? Part 2
>
> Dave, here's a followup to my recent column on science's diminishing returns. It introduces the term Eroom's Law, 
> Moore's backward. John Horgan
>
> Is Science Hitting a Wall? Part 2
>
>  
>
> Analysis of drug research identifies causes of declining returns, like the better than the Beatles problem, and a 
> possible solution.
>
>
>
> My last post, “Is Science Hitting a Wall?,” provoked lots of reactions. Some readers sent me other writings about 
> diminishing returns from research. One is “Diagnosing the decline in pharmaceutical R&D efficiency,” published in 
> Nature Reviews in 2012. The paper is so clever, loaded with ideas and relevant to science as a whole that I’m 
> summarizing its main points here.
>
>  
>
> Eroom’s Law. The paper notes that “the number of new drugs approved per billion U.S. dollars spent on R&D has halved 
> roughly every 9 years since 1950.” The authors, Jack Scannell and three other British investment analysts, call this 
> trend “Eroom’s Law,” which is Moore’s Law flipped over. Moore’s Law is Gordon’s Moore’s famous observation about the 
> growing power of computer chips.
>
>  
>
> Eroom’s Law might hold for many fields other than drug development. As my previous column notes, Eroom’s Law holds 
> even for computer chips, because upholding Moore’s Law has required more and more resources. Scannell et al identify 
> four factors underpinning Eroom’s Law. Here they are, with brief explanations...
>
> Continue at https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/is-science-hitting-a-wall-part-2/



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