What the World Might Look Like in 5 Years, According to US Intelligence - Defense One

["David Farber" <farber () gmail com>]

> http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2017/01/what-world-might-look-5-years-according-us-intelligence/134511/?oref=d-river# 
> <http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2017/01/what-world-might-look-5-years-according-us-intelligence/134511/?oref=d-river#>

Even America's own government analysts see the American Era drawing to a close.

Every four years, a group of U.S. intelligence analysts tries to predict the future. And this year, in a report 
released just weeks before Donald Trump assumes the presidency, those analysts forecast a massive shift in 
international affairs over the next five years or so: “For better and worse, the emerging global landscape is drawing 
to a close an era of American dominance following the Cold War,” the study argues. “So, too, perhaps is the rules-based 
international order that emerged after World War II.”

The National Intelligence Council (NIC), a unit within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, is 
essentially marking the potential end not just of America’s status as the world’s sole superpower, but also of the 
current foundation for much of that power: an open international economy, U.S. military alliances in Asia and Europe, 
and liberal rules and institutions—rules like human-rights protections and institutions like the World Trade 
Organization—that shape how countries behave and resolve their conflicts.

Trump has repeatedly expressed opposition to key elements of this international order—specifically free-trade deals, 
U.S. alliance arrangements, and America’s promotion of democracy abroad. But he wants to preserve U.S. dominance in the 
world; he wants, after all, to once more make America great. And on Tuesday, Michael Flynn, Trump’s incoming national 
security adviser, suggested that his boss might be more committed to the international system than assumed.

The Trump administration will “examine and potentially rebaseline our relationships around the globe,” Flynn said 
during an event at the U.S. Institute of Peace. But he added that “alliances are one of the great tools that we have,” 
that one of America’s strengths is its “unapologetic defense of liberty,” and that the United States “must and will 
remain a superpower” and “indispensable nation,” borrowing a phrase from the Clinton administration.

Today, however, major powers are struggling to cooperate on issues of global consequence and acting aggressively in 
their respective parts of the world, the NIC observes. In the coming years, the council envisions the current 
international system fragmenting “toward contested regional spheres of influence.”

In one example of what this new world might look like, the authors imagine that by the early 2020s—when Donald Trump, 
who is never mentioned by name in the report, could conceivably still be president—China, Russia, and Iran come to 
believe that the United States is retreating from the world because of its divisive domestic politics and messy 
government finances. As a result, the Chinese, Russians, and Iranians set about expanding their influence over 
neighboring countries, such that, by the mid-2020s, the “powers at the center of [regional] spheres [are attempting] to 
assert their right to privileged economic, political, and security influence within their regions.” The report’s 
authors, for instance, envision China seeking to address poor environmental conditions in the country by diverting 
rivers or injecting sulfate aerosols into the atmosphere, harming nearby states in the process. The scenario reaches a 
climax during the Indo-Pakistani war of 2028, which involves the first use of a nuclear weapon in a conflict since 
1945—and jolts the world’s great powers into cooperating with each other again.

The report—which, among other sources, draws on field visits to 36 countries and territories and
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