Re The Nerve Agent Attack that Did Not Occur: Analysis of the Times and Locations of Critical Events in the Alleged Nerve Agent Attack at 7 AM on April 4, 2017 in Khan Sheikhoun, Syria

["Dave Farber" <farber () gmail com>]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Ralph Hitchens <rmhitchens45 () gmail com>
> Date: April 21, 2017 at 6:38:38 PM EDT
> To: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>
> Subject: Re: [IP] Re The Nerve Agent Attack that Did Not Occur: Analysis of the Times and Locations of Critical 
> Events in the Alleged Nerve Agent Attack at 7 AM on April 4, 2017 in Khan Sheikhoun, Syria
>
> Dave,
>
> My recollection from the briefings I saw after Desert Storm (I was a reservist on the Air Staff at the Pentagon) made 
> the point that the video footage Ted Postol saw as "commercial" video with a slower frame rate than the video footage 
> used by DOD analysts.  A fellow reservist in my unit -- also a SAIC scientist -- who was mobilized at the end of the 
> war and analyzed the DOD footage told me that in his opinion the Patriot was a superb interceptor with a "sub-lethal" 
> warhead.  Also, a major complicating factor was that the extended-range SCUDs, apparently designed and manufactured 
> by the Iraqis, had inadequate structural integrity and usually came apart in-flight, which naturally confused the 
> Patriot interceptor missile, now confronted with multiple radar returns with different trajectories.
>
> DOD and Raytheon analysts dismissed Postol's analysis, and I frankly don't recall if the whole business fizzled out.  
> Didn't seem to hurt Army procurement and export sales of the Patriot system, though.
>
> Ralph Hitchens
> Lt. Col. USAFR (Ret.)
>
> > On Fri, Apr 21, 2017 at 1:12 PM, Dave Farber <farber () gmail com> wrote:
> >
> > Begin forwarded message:
> > > From: "Peter G. Neumann" <neumann () csl sri com>
> > > Date: April 21, 2017 at 1:05:58 PM EDT
> > > To: dave () farber net
> > > Cc: "ip" <ip () listbox com>
> > > Subject: Re: [IP] The Nerve Agent Attack that Did Not Occur: Analysis of the Times and Locations of Critical Events 
> > > in the Alleged Nerve Agent Attack at 7 AM on April 4, 2017 in Khan Sheikhoun, Syria
> > >
> > > Postol is of course remembered for his analysis of the Scud missiles​ 
> > > supposedly shot down by the Patriot missiles in the first Iraq war.
> > > The govvies were claiming a very high kill rate (80%?).
> > > Postol examined the radar track data, and concluded that the
> > > actual kill rate was somewhere between 0 and 20%.
> > > At that point (if my memory serves), the track data was CLASSIFIED,
> > > and Postol accused of violating national security!



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