Bandwidth reality U.S. except FIOS behind, Competition works

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Dave Burstein <daveb () dslprime com>
Date: May 22, 2007 5:28:44 PM EDT
To: Daniel Weitzner <djweitzner () csail mit edu>, David Farber  
<dave () farber net>
Subject: Bandwidth reality U.S. except FIOS behind, Competition works

Dave, Daniel

Jumping in because Daniel's comment "I'm sure these numbers are  
real," isn't so. Actually, some of these CWA figures are  
unsupportable, based on unrealistic "up to" speeds.

   Real average in France is closer to 8-12 than 17.   Japan has 7M  
fiber connections at 50 meg plus, but with the DSL and cable included  
the "overall average" is probably less than 15. Canadian speeds are  
similar to the U.S., although prices are still lower. The UK and soon  
Spain are rapidly moving to faster DSL's, advertised as "up to 24"  
and averaging 8-15 down. France has fiber coming fast starting now,  
and Germany, Holland and others VDSL from the curb for a real 30-50  
down, 10+ up. Kende's comment that the 15-25 DSL is typically half  
that is on target.

     Still a heck of a lot better than the typical U.S. downloads of  
1.5 - 6, with an average of 3-4.

     Weitzner is on target noting upload is very important, and the  
ADSL/cable current limits of about a meg not "a good thing."  Perhaps  
time to write an essay "up to considered harmful."


> Dan also wondered how many blog/YouTube posts are made from these  
> various countries?

Loads. Blogging is incredibly active in China and France, I know, and  
in France Daily Motion is providing a very active video service  
winning share from YouTube, many in French and other European languages.

> -what regulatory and ownership structures come with these network
> configurations?

Overwhelmingly, the countries with faster broadband have more  
competition than the U.S., with subsidies generally a minor factor.   
With the exception of China, soon to pass the U.S. in broadband  
totals, monopolies have done badly and duopolies (U.S. telco and  
cable) not well.

Leaders

Japan 4  (had 6 in the major growth stage)
France 4+  (has 7, but rapidly consolidating to 4)
Korea 4  (had 7-8 in the major growth stage)
Germany 4+ (just the last two years, but inspiring 50/10 to millions)

     Overwhelmingly, the countries with 4 or more are getting much  
better prices and higher speeds. This is typically accomplished by  
efficient "local loop unbundling", in which 2-4 competitors have  
built DSLAM networks and backhaul reaching 50-70% of the nation,  
sharing only the wires under the streets.  The UK is starting to see  
a similar boom and improvement in offerings.

    Countries like the U.S. with two successful carriers typically  
are behind. In turn, the countries with only one major carrier  
(Greece, Ireland, Germany until 2005, Spain) are behind the U.S. The  
main exception is China, where China Telecom and China Netcom have  
virtual monopolies in their territories but strong government guidance.

     Here are some basics about broadband speeds. Based on eight  
years of reporting at DSL Prime, including many real world data reports.

ADSL2+ 3-15 meg down for most people, less at extreme distances.   
Peak of 26 meg down is good for less than 100 meters. Significant  
numbers (10% in U.S.) may not get even a meg. 700K to 1 meg up,  
commonly,

Cable 5-10 down for most people. (36 meg shared) A well run cable  
network has surprisingly little congestion, a bad one extensive slow  
periods. Upstream typically well under a megabit, with some networks  
geared for 200K. DOCSIS 3.0 is a real 25-100 megabits in both  
directions, and early versions are shipping in Japan, France, and the  
U.K. Expect big change in 2008-2012.

Fiber 50+ meg in both directions (including VDSL from the curb/basement)

Wireless, including WiFi, Wimax, EVDO, 3G CDMA/GSM, etc. 200K-2 meg  
typical downstream, slower upstream.   I am not a wireless expert,  
but my opinion is that wireless will generally peak out in single  
megabits as video demand increases. That's not inevitable, but far  
more towers/access points (or spectrum) will be required to reach  
higher speeds as video over the web increases.

Satellite is a form of wireless, but currently even slower.

    Any operator can do a cheap, lousy job and foul things up, no  
matter the technology. Essentially every network is shared in the  
backhaul and the connection to the wider Internet. This "contention"  
or "over-subscription" works fine 99% of the time in a robust  
network, but if overdone means user speed plummets at peak times.  
Bandwidth isn't free, but in a large volume network decently  
connected it's darn cheap. The difference between a good network that  
delivers peak speeds reliably and a congested one is less than 5% of  
the typical retail charge. But some operators cut corners on this,  
and smaller ISPs that have to overpay for backhaul to incumbents are  
particularly challenged. The physical network needs to be maintained,  
with reflections, bridge taps, etc cleaned up when needed.

    If I had more time, this post would be shorter. Also sorry to  
review why U.S. unbundling policy failed (1998-2003, or the  
comparative subsidy numbers.

Dave Burstein
Editor, DSL Prime

-------------------------------------------
Archives: http://v2.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now
RSS Feed: http://v2.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/
Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com