more on Jeffrey Chester: The Google YouTube Tango

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Patrick Sinz <patrick_sinz () yahoo com>
Date: October 14, 2006 3:13:05 AM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Subject: Re: [IP] more on Jeffrey Chester: The Google YouTube Tango

<snip>

> Frankly, I'm astonished at the prices that have been paid for MySpace
> and YouTube.  If these were physical, or at least persistent, assets
> that would be one thing.  They aren't.  Kids have always been smarter
> than "Grups" give them credit for.  If the media barons become too
> invasive with the ads, everyone will just fade away to another meeting
> place on the net, and Murdoch and company will be left holding the  
> (now
> empty) bag.
It is also obvious that peer pressure has no impact on the kids, as
demonstrated by the fact that almost NO teen ager is wearing overprices
branded shoes, and the constant infringment on their privacy has driven
all of them (except some of the more dimwitted ones) away from MSN/AIM.
> Scott
Unfortunatelly the level of "pain" that the "media barrons" can inflict
on users of something like youtube (or skyblog) is not linked to the
service itself, but to the service + the fact that all the other kids
are using the same platform.
So if for instance you are using the "really nice and cool peoples video
blogging platform" vs youtube. You will NOT get into the "friends list
of your friends (stored on youtube/skyblog/<current local culturaly
accepted brand), and therefore your friends will not be "alerted" when
you update your site, wich means that they will not "comment" on your
site.
i.e. your'e out.

And as a final comment 1.6 Billion US$ is about 6 times the price of
Mirabilis (and if I remember well Mirabilis was paid for in cash vs
stocks for youtubes).
I'd be very surprised if the "size" of the internet has not been
multiplied by more than 6 in the past 8 years.
Moreover I do believe that AOL would not have any hope of morphing from
a modem access provider into a content provider without the leverage
that ICQ gave them.

(so who will be able to afford 10 Billion US$ for the "next big network
effect based thing" in 2012 ?)
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