more on "Strong" AI to be here within 25 years

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Frode Hegland <frode () hegland com>
Date: July 15, 2006 5:13:53 AM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Cc: Douglas Engelbart <dengelbart () yahoo com>
Subject: Re: [IP] "Strong" AI to be here within 25 years

Let's just be clear that AI (exceeding human intelligence) means:  
Something smarter than us. For me this has already happened; there  
are plenty of people out there much smarter than me.

I'd like more effort on how I can better work with these people.

AI is great and useful in specific areas. But why can't we also  
invest more in what Doug Engelbart calls 'augmenting human  
intelligence' as well?

When will someone say something like: "in the next 25 years we will  
have a word processor with the capability to quickly and efficiently  
work with the person writing."

Or how about this: "in the next 25 years we will have an email system  
more advanced than we have today".

OK, that last one was a bit facetious, I am a little bitter that  
email has not improved (user interface or capability wise) much in  
the last 15-20 years or so. Seriously, the minds on IP have nothing  
better to communicate through (technically) than Dave's  
(fantastically well moderated) plain text email list!

Please, please, computer games and movie graphics are doing well on  
the back of Moore's law. There is so much that can be done here. And  
before I get the 'what are you doing then' question, we are (as many  
here know) making a tiny little widget that let's you interact with  
all the text on the web, fundamentally altering its structure (for  
Firefox now, IE soon). And this is a self-funded, almost hobby  
project. Imagine what MS or Apple or Adobe could do if they bothered.

So how about another read-through of Doug Engelbart's 'Augmenting  
Human Intellect' paper, first published in 1962, a useful framework  
for how to apply this Moore's law delivered power. - http:// 
tinyurl.com/krego -

Remember the Jetsons's? There is a great scene in one of them, where  
Mr. Jetson goes to work and presses a button which is labeled  
(something like) 'Do Work' and the computer does all the work. When  
this happens (in 25 years or whenever), why would Mr. Jetson be  
needed to press that button? Why would people be needed at all. At  
that point, should we just trust AI to make important decisions for us?

Argh, at the risk of repeating myself; don't replace me, augment me!


On 14 Jul 2006, at 14:46, David Farber wrote:

> "The advent of strong AI (exceeding human intelligence) is the most  
> important transformation this century will see, and it will happen  
> within 25 years, says Ray Kurzweil, who will present this paper at  
> The Dartmouth Artificial Intelligence Conference: The next 50 years  
> (AI@50) on July 14, 2006."

Frode Hegland
ceo
The Hyperwords Company
www.hyperwords.net





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