Interesting People mailing list archives
Is Apple creating the FCC's worst fear?]
From: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>
Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 09:54:40 -0500
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- Hash: SHA1 - -------- Original Message -------- Subject: [Dewayne-Net] re: Is Apple creating the FCC's worst fear? Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 06:40:24 -0800 From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com> Reply-To: dewayne () warpspeed com To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <dewayne-net () warpspeed com> References: <20060211142724.87A1A3C0E6 () dl1 dtc umn edu> [Note: This comment comes from reader Andrew Odlyzko. Andrew forgot one important member of the content food chain, the lawyers. DLH]
From: odlyzko () dtc umn edu (Andrew Odlyzko) Date: February 11, 2006 6:27:24 AM PST To: dewayne () warpspeed com Subject: Re: [Dewayne-Net] Is Apple creating the FCC's worst fear? Dewayne, At last, a welcome wake up call for the telcos, which have been dreaming about streaming for decades, oblivious to the world around them. A few points: 1. That movies and music would be delivered primarily as file transfers for local storage and reply was predicted more than a decade ago. It is a simple consequence of technology trends. 2. File transfers already dominate. Perhaps Video iPod will make the telecom industry realize this, but Napster made files dominant half a dozen years ago. All that P2P traffic that everyone agrees is now the dominant form of traffic on the Internet is in the form of file transfers. Streaming traffic is far smaller. 3. One thing that is not mentioned in this story, but is relevant, is that it is faster-than-real-time file transfers that are likely to dominate. After all, do you want to wait 2 hours for that movie to download to your Video iPod? If you want it there, to take along on the plane ride or to the beach, in 5 minutes, you have got to have a transmission link that is 24 times faster than what is required for real-time streaming. I have been asking in my networking-related lectures how many people see any point (in a loose sense, for either consumers or service providers) in having faster-than-real-time movie transfers. The highest positive response rate I ever got was about 20%. That means people just don't understand this. Yet faster-than-real-time transfers already dominate. Here in the U.S., we have mostly MP3 music files, which are encoded at 100-200 Kbps, and are flying around at 0.5 - 3 Mbps. In places like Korea, network traffic is dominated by movies, which are encoded at typically under 1 Mbps, but are moving across the network at 5-10 Mbps. Some further arguments for faster-than-real-time transfers are at <http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/tv.internet.pdf> 4. It is very questionable whether "content revenue could dwarf the revenue generated by voice and the Internet." People have traditionally valued connectivity far more than content, see "Content is not king," <http://firstmonday.org/issues/issue6_2/odlyzko/> Furthermore, content does not come for free. All those musicians, directors, and studio executives like to get paid. In fact, the telcos' entrance into the movie distribution business is making them salivate at the prospects of real competition in delivery methods, so they can get of the revenue stream that cable now collects. Andrew
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- Is Apple creating the FCC's worst fear?] Dave Farber (Feb 11)