some other semi-random thoughts

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Gene Spafford <spaf () cerias purdue edu>
Date: August 10, 2006 8:16:02 PM EDT
To: Dave Farber <dave () farber net>
Subject: More for IP

Here are some other semi-random thoughts for the readership.


Several major US airlines are in bankruptcy court, and several  
outside the US are in real trouble.  A few have made huge cuts to  
pensions and operations to enable them to survive.  A few are  
struggling even with that (I seem to recall Delta and Northwest  
having the most problems?).   I suspect that many business travelers  
will simply stop traveling rather than consign their laptops and cell  
phones to unlocked luggage.  And how many parents will want to take  
their kids on board planes for vacations with such a climate of fear  
and restriction?    This may be the death knell for a few airlines.

In the US we have (as a nation) done a fair job of dismantling the  
national train system, so that isn't an alternative.  However, in  
Europe and some other places, train travel is quite reasonable.   The  
Boston-NY-DC trains are still reasonable in the US.  So, the people  
who don't fly may start taking the trains, and then they are a target  
similar to what happened in Madrid and the London Underground.   How  
long before TSA has checkpoints and no carry-ons for trains?

Want to drive?  Odds are you are more at risk behind the wheel than  
on a plane.  And the gas prices soaring while the Alaskan pipeline is  
down and our national policy (in the US) seems to be to further  
antagonize the countries where we might import oil....   And think of  
the massive waste of time to drive even between two nearly major  
metropolitan centers....

On the upside, video conferencing is actually not too bad.  Apple may  
see a surge in purchases simply to use Leopard's upcoming group video  
chat facilities!


Of course, no matter how bad the effects, they would have been many  
times worse had the attacks succeeded.

Dealing with the antisocial terrorists -- and especially the suicidal  
ones -- and balancing risk vs. reward in our defenses may well  
determine whether the world economy tips into something very  
unpleasant in the next few years.   And if that happens, no one is  
likely to be immune anywhere in the world unless they already have  
nothing to lose.


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