From Neil Munro; This is why I love IP.

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Benjamin Kuipers <kuipers () cs utexas edu>
Date: October 5, 2005 10:26:44 PM EDT
To: dave () farber net
Cc: Ip Ip <ip () v2 listbox com>, Benjamin Kuipers <kuipers () cs utexas edu>
Subject: Re: [IP] From Neil Munro; This is why I love IP.


Neil Munro is polite and condescending, giving the naive children a  
little pat on the head for their cute beliefs, but he is still wrong.  
And seriously wrong, spreading a common but false meme that tends to  
prolong violent conflict all over the world.

There's an obvious and important difference between ending conflict  
by defeating the other side, making them powerless to fight on, and  
negotiating peace based on the mutual perception that continued  
violence isn't approaching either side's goals.  The latter is what  
is happening in Ireland.

As we see in asymmetric conflicts such as Iraq, "fear that the enemy  
can inflict even greater violence and pain" is doing us little or no  
good against the insurgents.  They are willing to absorb the large  
amounts of violence, pain, and death our troops are capable of  
dishing out, particularly knowing that most of it will fall on non- 
combatant locals, turning them against our side, and helping them  
recruit more supporters.

To the extent that we are making any progress in Iraq at all, it is  
through the restraint that our troops often show, allowing them to  
apply non-violent "weapons" that are more effective than violence. If  
we can restore and protect the infrastructure, improving the lives of  
everyday Iraqis, we gain ground.  If we can pursuade Sunnis, Shiites,  
and Kurds to participate together in elections, we gain ground.  If  
we can encourage those three distinct groups to think of themselves  
as Iraqis, and see the insurgents as foreigners, we gain ground.  If  
we can convince the Iraqi people that the insurgents are more  
responsible for their problems than we are, we gain ground.

The insurgents rely on being able to "swim like fish in the sea of  
the people" (paraphrasing Mao).  When the ordinary people see them as  
threats to their well-being, and trust the authorities enough to turn  
them in, the insurgents will be finished.

Certainly, to have the time to accomplish this essentially non- 
violent change, you have to avoid getting killed in the process. But  
that kind of self-protection is a far cry from crushing your opponent  
through violence and pain.

Sainthood is not required.  What is required is empowering the great  
majority of people on all sides who just want to be left alone to  
tend to their own affairs.  And marginalizing politicians who hope to  
gain power by fanning ethnic hatred.  And achieving a level of trust  
in the civil society, so that ordinary people will act in small ways  
everywhere to protect it.

It is attitudes like those expressed by Neil Munro that led American  
leaders to charge into Iraq with guns blazing, believing that the  
quick defeat of Saddam's army would bring glory and peace.  It might  
have been possible to bring peace and democracy to Iraq.  It's even  
conceivable that it is still possible.  But I have seen no evidence  
that our current national leaders have the least clue how to do it.

Ben Kuipers


At 7:37 PM -0400 10/5/05, David Farber wrote:

> no comment
>
> Begin forwarded message:
>
> From: "Munro, Neil" <NMunro () nationaljournal com>
> Date: October 5, 2005 8:57:38 AM EDT
> To: dave () farber net
> Subject: From Neil Munro; This is why I love IP.
>
>
>     This is why I love IP.
>
>     In response to my comment that the Brits defeated the IRA,
> Gordon Syme wrote that "the decommissioning of IRA weapons was brought
> about through peaceful means. The British did not 'defeat' the IRA,  
> that
> implies they won by force. The British and Irish governments realised
> many years ago that
> the only way to end the problem was peaceful negotiation."
>
>     The ability of nice people to believe that eloquence and
> civilized conduct trumps war is delightful, just as children's  
> desire to
> believe in Santa Claus is delightful. It is certainly much more  
> charming
> than belief in a flat Earth, and is somewhat ennobling.
>
>     But, of course, it is not true. From space we can see the Earth
> is round, and with even a modest bit of intellectual effort, we can
> address the question 'What made the parties decide to negotiate rather
> than seek complete victory via a little extra violence?' As grade- 
> school
> kids recognize, the answer is fear that the enemy can inflict even
> greater violence and pain. There is no evidence that man has evolved
> into sainthood.
>
>     I do hope Mr. Syme and others can continue to believe in the
> diplomatic tooth-fairy, and that US leadership successfully balances
> society's need for rough-shouldered force with the natural desire for
> the dream of negotiated peace.
>
>     Having received comments from other IP-readers, I know that some
> IP-readers recognize the difficulty of this task.
>
>     Like I say, I just love IP.
>
>     Neil
>     Born in Dublin, Ireland.
>
>
>
> Begin forwarded message:
>
> From: Gordon Syme <gsyme () twiceasgood net>
> Date: October 5, 2005 5:04:24 AM EDT
> To: dave () farber net
> Subject: Re: [IP] more on High-tech army defeats insurgency; May I
> citesome examples?
>
>
> Professor Farber,
>
> for IP, if you wish:
>
> On Tue, 2005-10-04 at 16:35 -0400, David Farber wrote:
>
>
> > Begin forwarded message:
> >
> > From: "Munro, Neil" <NMunro () nationaljournal com>
> > Date: October 4, 2005 4:04:53 PM EDT
> >
> > The Brits defeated the IRA this month
> > after 25 years and roughly 4,000 deaths.
>
> The decommissioning of IRA weapons was brought about through peaceful
> means. The British did not 'defeat' the IRA, that implies they won by
> force. The British and Irish governments realised many years ago that
> the only way to end the problem was peaceful negotiation.
>
> -Gordon Syme
>
>
>
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--

Benjamin Kuipers, Professor         email:  kuipers () cs utexas edu
Computer Sciences Department        tel:    1-512-471-9561
University of Texas at Austin       fax:    1-512-471-8885
Austin, Texas 78712 USA             http://www.cs.utexas.edu/~kuipers


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