Wireless Perception Versus Reality

[David Farber <dave () farber net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne () warpspeed com>
Date: May 12, 2005 9:24:48 AM EDT
To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <dewayne-net () warpspeed com>
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] Wireless Perception Versus Reality
Reply-To: dewayne () warpspeed com


[Note:  This item comes to me from friend Esme Vos of  
MuniWireless.com  DLH]

May 10, 2005

Wireless Perception Versus Reality
By David Haskin
Mobile Pipeline
<http://www.mobilepipeline.com/163100577>

For all the talk about municipal Wi-Fi networks, will people use them  
when they're available? For Mobile Pipeline readers, the answer is  
overwhelmingly "no" -- for now.
The recently-completed Mobile Pipeline Voting Booth survey asked what  
type of mobile connectivity you expect to use in the next year. About  
27 percent of respondents said they expect to use 3G offered by  
wireless carriers. Wi-Fi hotspots drew 19 percent, WiMAX drew 18  
percent and only four percent of respondents said they expect to use  
municipal Wi-Fi networks.

Current predictions aren't the test of which types of connectivity  
will succeed. Rather, the survey was more about perception. For  
instance, WiMAX did pretty well more because of perception than  
reality -- the technology gets a ton of attention, but mobile WiMAX  
is about two years away and the survey asked about usage one year  
from now.

In retrospect, it's not surprising that the perception of municipal  
Wi-Fi is low. For one thing, the perception of government's ability  
to deliver services is low. Also, municipal Wi-Fi has been blasted by  
incumbent telecoms, claiming it infringes on their turf. The negative  
public relations undoubtedly has hurt perceptions of municipal Wi-Fi.

Perhaps most important, though, is the fact that Mobile Pipeline  
readers tend to be computing professionals. This isn't a group  
accustomed to acquiring services from government, particularly when  
the precise nature and quality of those services is unknown and  
surely will vary from city to city.

The primary goals of most municipal Wi-Fi services are to provide  
access to less affluent users and to all users when no other fast  
access is available. Many municipalities have also said they want to  
use municipal systems to buff up their image as a place in which to  
do business although the Voting Booth survey indicates that business  
isn't interested so far.

Perhaps the most telling statistic from the survey is that the  
largest numbers of respondents -- 29 percent -- expect to use two or  
more types of services. That response makes the most sense to me  
because none of the wireless access services will be truly  
ubiquitous, although 3G will come closest in the next year.

Having said all this, it's still astounding to me that the incumbent  
telecoms have spent so much energy, time and money fighting municipal  
Wi-Fi systems. It's becoming clear, at least to me, that municipal  
systems will fill in gaps more than be direct competition to the telcos.

The strong positive response to 3G re-confirms, to me, that 3G has  
the potential to be the goose laying the golden eggs -- but only if  
wireless operators lower prices sooner rather than later and better  
understand how their customers expect to access data. If those things  
don't happen in the next year as 3G networks become widely available,  
perceptions surely will change rapidly.

Weblog at: <http://weblog.warpspeed.com>



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